700 million HYPE sit outside circulation as the September 29 unlock approaches

For September 29, 2026, several data services list a fresh release of HYPE, the token of the Hyperliquid trading venue. How large that tranche actually is, though, is a question they answer very differently. The figures range from around 330,000 to 14.18 million HYPE. At a price of $86.15, roughly $28 million sits at one end of that range and $1.22 billion at the other. Anyone who wants to know what can reach the market on that date is left with a range, not a single number.

The picture only firms up where the holdings themselves are counted. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis on September 29, 2026. It rests on the supply data that Hyperliquid publishes for HYPE: maximum supply, total supply, circulating supply, future emissions and the four addresses listed there as non-circulating. The headline result: 700,219,817 HYPE, or 70.10 percent of the entire supply, is currently not in circulation at all. Measured against that, any single monthly instalment is a marginal figure.

Unlock, vesting and cliff: the three terms behind the September 29 date

Three technical terms keep surfacing around dates like this, and they do not mean the same thing.

Unlock

An unlock is the release of tokens that were contractually or technically locked until that point. Only from then on can the recipient move them, meaning hold, transfer or sell them. An unlock is not a new issuance: the tokens already exist, they merely shift from a locked state to a freely available one.

Vesting

Vesting is the schedule under which an allocation is released step by step, usually in equal instalments over months or years. The purpose is to stop founders, staff and early backers from selling their entire allocation on a single day.

Cliff

The cliff is the initial lock-up period at the start of a vesting plan, during which nothing is released at all. For HYPE that cliff ran for one year; the allocation for core contributors only began paying out in instalments afterwards. Keeping the three terms apart also explains why a release date on its own says nothing about selling pressure.

HYPE unlock estimates range from 330,000 to 14.18 million tokens

The spread between the published figures is not a rounding problem, it is a definition problem. Three numbers circulate side by side:

• Around 9.92 million HYPE. This figure matches the monthly instalment for core contributors as several unlock calendars report it. It is often quoted as 4.46 percent of circulating supply, which at a price of $86.15 works out at roughly $855 million. When the number made the rounds in late September, HYPE was trading higher, which is why most accounts spoke of around $904 million.
• 14,175,778 HYPE. Other calendars list this value for the same date, some 1.42 percent of total supply and therefore around $1.22 billion. The difference arises because further allocations are counted here alongside the core contributor instalment.
• Around 330,000 HYPE. The data service Tokenomist explicitly asks in its own analysis whether roughly 330,000 or roughly 9.9 million HYPE are released on a date like this, and weighs the two readings against each other. At the lower end that would be around $28 million at the current price.

All three numbers can be justified, depending on which allocations you count towards the tranche and which circulating supply you use as the reference. For you as a holder, one thing follows above all: a headline with a dollar sum does not replace checking which reference sits behind it. The precise figures from the individual calendars can be found in the Tokenomist analysis.

700.2 million HYPE are not in circulation

Hyperliquid's own supply figures paint a clear picture. Maximum supply stands at one billion HYPE. Total supply sits below that at 998,900,666.73 HYPE; 1,099,333 HYPE have therefore been permanently removed, which on this network happens through fees. Of the total supply:

• 298,680,849.52 HYPE are counted as circulating supply,
• 289,039,730.49 HYPE are holdings listed as non-circulating, spread across exactly four addresses,
• 411,180,086.72 HYPE are future emissions that have not been issued at all yet.

The three values add up exactly to total supply, which makes the data internally consistent. Add the two latter items together and 700,219,817.21 HYPE are outside circulation, or 70.10 percent. Even the largest of the three circulating tranche estimates, 14.18 million HYPE, therefore amounts to a good two percent of what is still outstanding overall. For comparison: trading recently turned over roughly $850 million worth of HYPE in a single day.

Circulating supply in conflict: 76.2 million HYPE between two sources

This is where it gets interesting for anyone reading percentages. Hyperliquid itself reports a circulating supply of 298,680,849.52 HYPE. The widely used market data provider CoinGecko lists 222,445,714 HYPE for the same day. The gap between the two is 76,235,135 HYPE, or around $6.6 billion at a price of $86.15.

Such divergences are not unusual, because data providers apply different levels of strictness: some deduct holdings that are technically movable but plainly not available to the market. The consequence is tangible all the same. The same tranche of 9.92 million HYPE works out at 4.46 percent of circulating supply using CoinGecko's number, but only 3.32 percent using Hyperliquid's. On the first reading the news sounds roughly a third more dramatic, without anything about the tranche itself having changed.

241.5 million HYPE sit in a single locked address

The holdings listed as non-circulating are spread across four addresses, and they are very unevenly sized. By far the largest holds 241,480,853.16 HYPE, or 24.15 percent of maximum supply. That order of magnitude matches the published allocation to core contributors, which is given as 23.8 percent of total supply. It is from exactly this pool that the monthly instalments at release dates are drawn.

The second address holds 47,557,200.82 HYPE, or 4.76 percent of maximum supply. Behind it sits a system address of the network, which among other things holds repurchased tokens. The two remaining addresses barely register: the null address holds 1,673.79 HYPE, the burn address 2.72 HYPE. Anyone talking about locked HYPE holdings is therefore talking about two addresses in practice.

Why concentration in a few addresses cuts both ways

Heavy concentration means the schedule is predictable: there are few sources from which new supply can come, and their cadence is known. It also means that a small number of parties can move large amounts as soon as their lock expires. Both hold true at the same time, and neither reading can be refuted from the holdings data alone.

411.2 million HYPE in future emissions: the part nobody holds yet

The largest item outside circulation is future emissions at 411,180,086.72 HYPE. These are tokens that have not been allocated at all yet and are only due to come into existence over the coming years, earmarked above all for network rewards. They appear in no unlock calendar as a tranche, because there is nothing to release in their case.

For putting a single date into context, this item is nonetheless the most important one. It means that the amount of HYPE theoretically available to the market still grows considerably over the long run, quite independently of what happens on September 29. An investor who looks only at the next release date is taking in the smaller part of the picture.

What was distributed at launch

HYPE went live on November 29, 2024. The entire maximum supply of one billion tokens had already been allocated to 94,023 addresses at that point, a large share of it as a distribution to early users of the platform. The holdings that count as locked today are therefore not tokens created after the fact, but parts of that original allocation that are not yet free.

What dilution means for the HYPE price

Dilution describes the way an individual token's share of the total stock falls when new tokens enter circulation. Whether that turns into price pressure depends on whether the newly available tokens are actually sold. That is precisely what supply data cannot show, and it cannot be forecast responsibly either.

What is observable is the starting position. HYPE trades at around $86 and therefore some twelve percent below the record high of $97.96 set on September 23, 2026. Over 24 hours the price lost 4.4 percent. Market capitalisation stands at roughly $19.2 billion. Traders who use leveraged products around release dates often trade HYPE as a perpetual futures contract on specialised venues; which those are and how their fees differ is set out in our comparison of the best perp DEXs.

Bull and bear case side by side

Those who look at HYPE optimistically point out that the schedule has been known for a long time and should therefore be priced in, and that part of the fees is used to buy back tokens, which works against the new supply. Sceptics counter that the instalments keep running for years and that the core contributor allocation alone is larger than four fifths of today's circulating supply. These assessments stand against each other, and neither can be proven at present.

Hyperliquid holds no MiCA licence for Germany

Before position sizes come up, a sober look at the legal framework is worthwhile. The EU's MiCA regulation has set uniform rules since 2024 on who may offer crypto services in the European Union; providers need authorisation from a national supervisor, in Germany that is BaFin. Hyperliquid is a decentrally operated trading venue without such a licence. What that means for you in practice is set out in a separate piece on how Hyperliquid can be used from Germany.

Holding period, leverage and liquidation around a release date

Holding period

In Germany, gains from selling cryptocurrencies are tax-free after a holding period of one year; within that year they count as a private disposal transaction. Selling early because of a release date can break that deadline. Before reacting, it is worth looking up when your own HYPE was bought and how close the one-year mark is.

Leverage and liquidation

Anyone trading HYPE with leverage should know that a liquidation is the forced closure of a position as soon as the posted collateral no longer suffices. Dates on which the market expects a large release are often accompanied by wider price swings, and swings hit leveraged positions first. A smaller position survives a move that ends a large one.

Custody

If you intend to hold HYPE for longer, the question of custody matters more than any single date. Holdings on a trading venue are exposed to that venue's failure risk; a wallet whose keys only you know shifts the risk onto your own diligence in keeping those keys.

HYPE unlock: The key points for your decision

The September 29 date is a small slice of a long schedule. More important than the daily headline is that 70.10 percent of the entire HYPE supply still sits outside circulation and will be added in instalments over years. Three steps help you place it:

1. Question the reference figure. When a report gives a tranche as a percentage of circulating supply, check which circulating supply is meant. The two common values for HYPE are 76.2 million tokens apart, and the same unlock looks roughly a third larger or smaller as a result. Where you trade in the first place and under whose supervision is covered by our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges.
2. Settle custody before the date arrives. If your tokens sit on a trading venue without European authorisation, decide calmly whether they should stay there. Which devices are suitable for self-custody is covered in the hardware wallet comparison.
3. Recalculate your holding period instead of reacting to the headline. Check the purchase date of your HYPE and the one-year deadline before you sell because of a release date. Tools that track purchase dates and deadlines cleanly can be found among the crypto tax tools and portfolio trackers.

You can verify the supply figures in this article yourself at any time, for example via the public Hyperliquid explorer for HYPE.

(As of September 29, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)