Axie Infinity in October 2026: A Fight for Survival in the Gaming Winter
AXS is trading at around $1.17, more than 99 percent below its all-time high – few tokens illustrate the bursting of the play-to-earn bubble as starkly. The one-time flagship of the Sky Mavis universe has repeatedly reworked its model: away from earn-to-play mechanics, toward more conventional gameplay, NFT collectible logic, and the Ronin chain as a standalone gaming platform hosting several third-party titles.
Residual-value speculation rather than a growth story
The project’s strength lies in its remaining infrastructure: Ronin is a functioning, games-focused chain, and Sky Mavis has both experience and capital. The weaknesses carry real weight, though – active player counts are a fraction of the boom years, the flagship game has lost its cultural moment, and AXS competes for a crypto-gaming narrative the market currently avoids altogether. AXS is therefore a highly speculative bet on a second life for the sector.
The crypto market right now
Total value and sentiment of the market from our own charts. While the page is open, the values refresh at the pace of their source.
What actually moves the Axie Infinity price
Axie Infinity was the first blockchain game to bring millions of people into crypto – in some countries, playing temporarily became a source of income. The brand equity from that era outlasts the faded hype. The original play-to-earn model, however, proved unsustainable: it only worked as long as new players kept flowing in.
The metrics we watch for Axie Infinity
- Active players: The only metric that counts – a game without players has no token demand.
- In-game spending versus payouts: Shows whether people are playing or just earning.
- Supply trajectory: Rewards continuously create new supply.
- Capital flows into gaming overall: Blockchain gaming has been losing ground to AI and tokenised assets for years.
Why we model this conservatively
Value hinges on the success of a single title – unlike platform tokens, there is no diversification. Without new game mechanics that draw people in for fun rather than earnings, the token lacks a reason for demand.
Where this forecast can go wrong
If the gaming segment stays out of favour, even a well-executed game update won’t help much. Conversely, a title with genuine gameplay quality could shift perception – a scenario we deliberately keep out of the base case.
