Bitcoin price prediction: DVOL drops to 37 after the election, will the 100-day line hold?

What is documented: the DVOL volatility index of options exchange Deribit fell after the US election night from 40.89 points on Tuesday to 37.03 points on Wednesday morning, back where it stood before the Fed week at the end of October. On Wednesday morning, November 4, Bitcoin trades at $78,442 or €69,723, 2.0 percent above the previous day and 2.3 percent above the 100-day line at $76,663. Our assessment follows further down: the options market has unwound the election premium but still expects a range through Friday in which the 100-day line stays within reach.

The short answer: yes, based on options market prices, the 100-day line is more likely to hold than to break before Friday's expiry. The priced-in volatility implies a probability of around 19 percent that Bitcoin will be below it on Friday morning. That is not a call on direction but a translation of what traders pay for protection. Our Bitcoin price prediction covers where the price could head over a horizon of months. This piece sticks to the coming days and to what the options market reveals after the election.

DVOL after election night: the election premium is gone

The DVOL measures the volatility the Bitcoin options market prices in for the next 30 days, annualised. A reading of 37 means traders pay for options as if they expected annual volatility of 37 percent. The figure is therefore not a price forecast but the price of uncertainty.

On Tuesday, US election day, the index climbed as high as 40.89 points during the day. During election night it fell in steps: 38.98 at 00:00 UTC, 38.47 at 07:00, 37.03 at 10:00. The data come from Deribit's public DVOL series. A drop of almost 4 points in less than a day is the typical pattern after an event the market had priced in beforehand: once it is over, the premium that buyers of protection paid for it decays.

Compared with the Fed week: on October 28 the DVOL closed at 37.26 points, and on October 30 it hit an intraday high of 44.25 points. Today's reading is therefore slightly below the level before the rate decision. The market has thus fully priced out the two big events of the past two weeks.

What volatility of 37 means for the Bitcoin price through Friday

The annual figure can be scaled down to shorter periods by multiplying it by the square root of the fraction of the year. From Wednesday morning to the expiry of the weekly options on Friday at 9 a.m. CET there are around 45 hours. That yields a priced-in standard deviation of about 2.65 percent, or roughly $2,080.

In price terms: a range of roughly $76,360 to $80,520 covers, by this calculation, about two thirds of the outcomes the options market considers possible for Friday morning. Over a full week the standard deviation grows to 5.1 percent, a little over $4,000. The calculation assumes normally distributed returns, which Bitcoin does not have; large swings occur more often than it allows. It still works as an order of magnitude, because it shows how much movement is already in option prices.

Applied to the 100-day line at $76,663: the gap of 2.3 percent equals roughly 0.86 standard deviations. On paper, that gives Bitcoin a probability of about 19 percent of being below the line on Friday morning. For a jump above $82,000, Friday's most important call strike, the figure is around 5 percent.

The November 6 options expiry: $2.46 billion

On Friday, Bitcoin options covering 31,377 contracts expire on Deribit, each representing one bitcoin. At the current price that is $2.46 billion in notional value. The split is lopsided: 23,315 contracts are calls, rights to buy, and only 8,062 are puts, rights to sell. The put-call ratio stands at 0.35.

Most open calls cluster at $82,000 with 6,174 contracts and at $85,000 with 5,152. On the put side, the largest blocks sit at $74,000 with 1,267 and at $75,000 with 995 contracts. The so-called max pain point, at which buyers of all options together would suffer the largest loss, is $79,000. That is only 0.7 percent above the current price.

Important for context: the many calls at $82,000 and $85,000 are not a bet that the price will rise there by Friday. The two strikes are 4.5 and 8.4 percent above the current price. Without a strong rally in the next two days, these calls expire worthless. They therefore play a smaller role in price discovery through Friday than positions close to the market.

Put wall on November 13: protection moves back a week

The expiry a week later paints a different picture. For November 13 there are 10,164 puts against 4,793 calls, a put-call ratio of 2.12. At $74,000 alone, 4,098 puts are open, followed by $68,000 with 1,474 and $72,000 with 1,348 contracts. Anyone wanting to hedge against a setback has therefore done so not for Friday but for the week after.

The $74,000 level thus appears in two places: as the largest put position for Friday and as by far the largest position for November 13. It lies 5.7 percent below the current price and just above the 200-day line at $73,163. If the price approaches this zone, traders who sold those puts have to adjust their hedges. That can accelerate a move lower there, because the other side then sells bitcoin or futures.

The large monthly expiry on November 27, with $4.58 billion in notional value, is led by calls again, with a max pain point at $80,000. Thinking in weeks, you see a cautious middle of the month and more optimistic positioning towards month-end.

Since Monday's mining analysis: low at $75,695, recovery above $78,000

On Monday, in our Bitcoin price prediction on mining difficulty, we had the price at $77,657 and named $77,204 as the level below which things get serious. That level has since been broken and reclaimed. During election night Bitcoin fell as low as $75,695, the daily low according to CoinGecko. Our colleagues described the move in the morning in the Bitcoin price after election night.

Bitcoin now trades at $78,442, $785 higher than on Monday, a gain of 1.0 percent. The 50-day line, at $81,932 then, is at $81,911 today and remains the ceiling. The 200-day line has barely moved and stands at $73,163. What is new is the view from the options market: on Monday the DVOL was still at 39.3 points, today it is 37.0. The uncertainty the market pays for has fallen, even though the price was lower in between.

Sentiment and the Fear and Greed Index: fear, but less than on election day

The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me stands at 34 points on Wednesday, in the fear zone. On Tuesday it was 26, on Monday 37 points. The index combines volatility, trading volume, dominance and search queries into a value between 0 and 100. A jump of 8 points in one day fits the picture in the options market: after the election, nervousness has eased without confidence returning.

On a monthly view Bitcoin is down 9.2 percent, on a weekly view 3.8 percent. The price is 37.8 percent below the all-time high of $126,080 from October 2025. The recovery of the past 24 hours does not change that picture yet; it only prevents last week's decline from turning into a break of the 100-day line.

Bitcoin levels to expiry: $74,000, $76,663, $79,000 and $82,000

The options market and the moving averages together produce a set of levels for the coming days that reinforce each other:

• $82,000: the largest call position for Friday and also just above the 50-day line at $81,911. A close above it would be the first sign that the downtrend since early October is turning.
• $79,000: the max pain point of Friday's expiry. It serves as a reference in the options market; whether it actually pulls the price towards it is statistically disputed.
• $76,663: the 100-day line. It gave way only briefly during election night and had already been reclaimed by Wednesday morning.
• $74,000: the put wall for November 6 and November 13, with the 200-day line just below at $73,163.

If you bet on these levels with a leveraged product, keep the liquidation threshold in view. At ten times leverage, a counter-move of around 10 percent is enough to close the position; today that would mean a fall to about $70,600 or a rise to about $86,300. Our comparison of crypto brokers shows which providers offer leverage under European supervision.

Our assessment: calm in the options market is not yet a bottom

In the editorial team's view, the drop in the DVOL suggests the election is done as a burden. The evidence: the index fell within a day from 40.89 to 37.03 points, the Fear and Greed Index rose from 26 to 34, and Bitcoin reclaimed the 100-day line at $76,663 after the low of $75,695. Against that stands the positioning for November 13, with a put-call ratio of 2.12 and 4,098 puts at $74,000. Professionals are still hedging against a setback next week. On top of that come outflows of more than $1 billion from US spot ETFs, which cryptoticker.io reported on Wednesday morning in its piece on Bitcoin ETF outflows after the midterms.

Our conclusion: through Friday, sideways trading between $76,000 and $80,000 is more likely than a breakout. The direction after that will be decided more at the 50-day line and the put zone around $74,000 than at the expiry itself. This is not a buy or sell recommendation. Cryptocurrencies can swing all the way to a total loss.

Bitcoin options and tax: how Germany treats them differently from spot purchases

If you hold bitcoin directly in Germany, you benefit from the holding period: gains from private disposal transactions under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act are tax-free after one year. Within the year, an exemption limit of €1,000 per year applies to all private disposal gains together. We track where the debate about abolishing the holding period stands on our page on the state of the holding period reform.

This does not apply to options and futures on bitcoin. Under the prevailing view, gains from such derivatives are treated as capital income and are subject to the 25 percent flat-rate withholding tax plus solidarity surcharge and, where applicable, church tax. There is no holding period. So if you use options to bet on a quiet Friday, clarify the tax treatment with a tax adviser beforehand and document every trade carefully. With many individual trades, tools that record buy and sell times automatically help; our comparison of crypto tax tools gives an overview.

How to read the DVOL yourself

Deribit publishes the index free of charge. The exchange's statistics view shows its history over days and weeks. Three readings help with context: a DVOL below 35 stands for a quiet phase, as seen in September when the index fell to 33.09 points at times. Values between 35 and 45 are normal for Bitcoin. Above 45 the market prices in larger swings, as most recently in August with readings around 45 points.

To convert to a single day, divide the DVOL by about 19, the square root of 365. A reading of 37 thus gives an expected daily move of about 1.9 percent, just under $1,500 at the current price. If Bitcoin moves much more than that, the options market has underestimated the situation, and the DVOL usually rises in response. If you do not trade derivatives but want to buy bitcoin directly, you will find regulated providers in our comparison of crypto exchanges.

Bitcoin volatility at 37: below $76,663 the picture flips

1. Choose how to buy: If you want to get into Bitcoin after the election, use an exchange licensed under the EU's MiCA regulation. The exchange comparison lists the providers.
2. Limit leverage: A bet on Friday's expiry needs a stop below $76,663 or above $82,000. Our perp DEX comparison presents platforms for perpetual futures.
3. Document the holding period: Record the date and price of every Bitcoin purchase so the one-year holding period can be proven. The crypto tax tools help with this.

(As of November 4, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)