Solana Price Prediction: Only $1.2 Million in ETF Outflows, Even Though Holders Are Under Water

What is documented: the US spot ETFs on Solana lost a net $1.18 million on Thursday, November 5, even though the price fell 6.5 percent that day and briefly slipped below the 200-day line. At the same time, the value of all fund holdings, at $1.333 billion, is around $134 million below what investors have paid in net since launch. Our assessment follows further down: investors who do not sell despite a paper loss form a quiet base under the price, and that base is about to be tested in the coming days.

On Friday afternoon Solana trades at $91.12, or €81.76, according to data from CoinGecko. The daily low was $88.35 and the daily high $92.87. Our Solana price prediction sets out where the price could head over the coming months. This piece sticks to the question of the day: how do fund investors behave when the price falls, and what does that mean for the next levels?

An Outflow of $1.2 Million on a Day With a 6.5 Percent Drop

The daily figures come from SoSoValue, a data service that tracks inflows and outflows of US crypto funds every day. For November 5 it shows net outflows of $1.1761 million from the Solana ETFs. The Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) accounted for the largest share at $815,100, with a further $360,900 from the Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF (QSOL). The other funds reported no movement.

A net outflow is the difference between newly issued and redeemed fund shares. When an investor redeems shares, the issuer usually sells the corresponding amount of SOL. A large outflow therefore weighs directly on the spot market; a small one hardly does.

How small Thursday's figure is becomes clear in comparison with the week of October 26 to 30. Back then investors pulled out $71.47 million, the largest weekly outflow since the funds launched and the fourth week of outflows in a row. Thursday's outflow is less than 2 percent of that weekly figure, even though the price fell almost as much in a single day as on October 30, when it dropped from $102.32 to $95.47.

Solana also stands out against the other large funds. According to The Block, the Bitcoin ETFs lost $199.9 million at Fidelity alone and $105 million at BlackRock on the same Thursday. Together with the Ether funds, outflows across all crypto ETFs came to more than half a billion dollars.

$1.467 Billion Paid In, $1.333 Billion in Holdings

According to SoSoValue, the Solana ETFs have taken in a net $1.467 billion since launch. The total value of their holdings stood at $1.333 billion on Thursday evening, equal to 2.51 percent of Solana's entire market capitalisation. At a price of around $89, that works out at just under 15 million SOL.

The gap between the two figures is about $134 million. One caveat applies: before its conversion, the Grayscale fund was a trust and brought in holdings that were never counted as inflows. Net assets include those holdings, the sum of inflows does not. The real gap between money put in and current value is therefore more likely to be larger than $134 million.

For the state of the market, this is an important finding. The gap shows that fund investors bought in on average at higher prices than today's. As a group they are under water and still hardly selling. That points to investors with a longer horizon who sit out a decline rather than join it.

What Has Changed at the 200-Day Line Since Thursday Evening

In our Solana analysis of November 5, the price stood at $89.19 in the evening, 0.6 percent above the 200-day line, which was then at $88.93. The 200-day line is the average of closing prices over the past 200 days, and many traders see it as the border between an intact and a broken uptrend.

Since then, Solana slid to $88.35 overnight into Friday, falling further below the line than on Thursday; the line now sits at $88.96. The slide did not last. By Friday afternoon the price had recovered about 3 percent and is again 2.4 percent above the average. A daily close below the line, the yardstick most chart analysts use, has therefore still not happened.

The situation on the network is new as well. Since Friday, version 4.4.1 of the Agave validator software has been mandatory for all validators, a required update we reported on in the morning.

Six Weeks Down: Monday Readings Since September 28

The decline is not a story of this week alone; it runs through the whole autumn. CoinGecko's Monday readings, each taken at 0:00 UTC, show an unbroken staircase downwards: $121.96 on September 28, $121.52 on October 5, $111.25 on October 12, $104.00 on October 19, $101.24 on October 26 and $94.48 on November 2.

So for five weeks in a row the weekly open was lower than the week before. If Solana stays below $94.48 until Sunday evening, it will be the sixth. Over 30 days the loss adds up to 22.5 percent, over seven days to 6.7 percent. That leaves the price a good 69 percent below its all-time high of $293.31 from January 2025.

The capital locked in applications on the blockchain has shrunk at the same time. According to DefiLlama, the total value of funds deposited in Solana applications, known as TVL, fell from $6.57 billion on October 7 to $5.30 billion today. That is 19.4 percent less, slightly less than the price loss over the same period. A large part of the decline is therefore a price effect: the deposited SOL are worth less, and only a smaller part was withdrawn.

The Levels Between $88 and $99

For the coming days, the levels can be derived from the price data itself. The first support is the 200-day line at $88.96, with the overnight low at $88.35 just below it. A daily close below both would be the first since August 21, when Solana closed at $87.65.

On the upside, the first hurdle is the daily high of $92.87, the second the weekly open of $94.48. That level decides whether the losing streak on a weekly basis is broken. Above it lie the 100-day line at $98.89 and, much higher, the 50-day line at $108.39. Both averages are falling, so they will remain above the price in the coming days.

Further down there are few reference points this year. Solana set its low for the year on June 7 at $62.18. Between the 200-day line and that low lie more than $26, or almost 30 percent.

Futures Market: Bets on Rising Prices Dominate on OKX

A second look goes to futures trading. On the OKX exchange, open positions in perpetual SOL contracts amount to more than 3.48 million SOL, or around $316 million, on Friday, according to the exchange's public market data. The ratio of accounts holding long positions to those holding short positions was most recently 3.64. In mid-October it was still 2.2 to 2.5.

This metric counts accounts, not amounts. It shows that many smaller traders are betting on a recovery. For the price, that cuts both ways: if Solana falls below the levels mentioned, forced closures of these positions can accelerate the decline. A liquidation is the automatic closure of a leveraged position by the exchange once the posted collateral is no longer sufficient.

ETF or Coin: Which Route Is Open to Investors in Germany

As a private investor in Germany, you generally cannot buy the US spot ETFs discussed in this piece. The reason is the EU's PRIIPs regulation, which requires a key information document in German for such products. The US issuers do not provide one. German banks and brokers therefore block the funds for retail clients.

Two other routes are open. The first is exchange-traded products on Solana that are listed on European exchanges such as Xetra and sit in a securities account like a share. Our overview of crypto ETFs and ETPs in Germany shows which products exist and what matters for collateral and costs. The second route is buying the coins themselves through an exchange licensed under the EU's MiCA regulation, which has applied to crypto service providers since the end of 2024.

The main difference is tax. On gains from exchange-traded crypto products, most banks withhold the 25 percent flat-rate withholding tax plus solidarity surcharge, regardless of how long you have held them. Whether tax exemption after one year applies to fully collateralised products, as with Xetra-Gold, has not been settled by the highest court for cryptocurrencies. For SOL held directly, by contrast, the rule for private disposals clearly applies.

Staking and the Holding Period: The German Tax Office's Rules for SOL

If you hold SOL directly, you sell tax-free under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act if more than twelve months pass between purchase and sale. Within that period, the gain is taxed at your personal rate once all private disposal gains in a year together reach the exemption limit of €1,000. Losses from sales within the period can be offset against such gains, in the same year or carried forward to later years.

Many Solana holders stake their coins to earn rewards. Staking means assigning SOL to a validator, which uses them to take part in running the blockchain and receives new SOL in return. In its letter of March 6, 2025, the Federal Ministry of Finance confirmed that staking does not extend the holding period of the coins used to ten years. The rewards themselves are other income under Section 22 No. 3 at the time they are received and remain tax-free only up to an exemption limit of €256 a year. A separate holding period starts for each reward received.

In concrete terms: if you bought at $120 in the autumn and sell now at $91, you realise a loss that can be set against gains from other coins. If your purchase is more than a year behind you, however, you can claim neither gains nor losses. Without clean records of purchase dates and rewards, this is hard to prove, so it pays to reconcile your exchange history before the end of the year.

Two Paths to Mid-November

Our view: the fund figures argue against a sell-off by the big investors. The evidence is an outflow of just $1.18 million on a day with a 6.5 percent drop, the comparison with $71.47 million in the last week of October and the fact that fund investors are holding despite a paper loss of at least $134 million. As long as that holds, pressure on the 200-day line is likely to come mainly from the futures market and from Bitcoin, which trades at $75,811 on Friday, down 4 percent.

The ratio of long to short accounts on OKX of 3.64 points the other way. The more traders have bet on a rebound, the sharper a break of the $88.35 level could turn out. Only a weekly close above $94.48 would end the run of falling weeks. The editorial team does not derive a price target from this; the levels above are the test. Cryptocurrencies can be highly volatile, and a total loss is possible.

Solana ETFs: As Long as $89 Holds, the Base Stays Calm

1. Choose your route: Decide whether you want to hold Solana as an exchange-traded product in a securities account or as a coin. Our crypto broker comparison shows providers' fees and product ranges.
2. Sort out custody: If you buy SOL directly and hold it for more than a year, it is best kept off the exchange. Suitable devices are listed in our hardware wallet comparison.
3. Record losses and deadlines: Enter purchase date, purchase price and every staking reward in a tax tool before December 31. Our comparison of crypto tax tools lists suitable programs.

(As of November 6, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)