Bitcoin price at $76,887: BTC slips to its 100-day line on US election day

What the data shows: on Tuesday morning bitcoin trades only 0.45 percent above its 100-day average, and at the intraday low it briefly slipped below it for the first time since mid-August. Our view follows further down. The brief dip below the line matters less than whether a daily close below it follows, and that close falls on the night of the US election.

Bitcoin costs $76,887 at 05:47 CET on Tuesday, November 3, or 68,720 euros. That is 1.95 percent less than 24 hours earlier, according to CoinGecko. The range over the past day runs from $76,498 to $78,374, and bitcoin worth $26.7 billion changed hands.

Bitcoin price on Tuesday morning: an intraday low just below the 100-day line

The overnight decline is small on its own. Bitcoin has given up 3.6 percent over the past seven days and 9.4 percent over 30 days. What stands out is where the price now sits. By our own calculation from CoinGecko daily data, the average of the last 100 daily closes is around $76,540. The intraday low of $76,498 was therefore a little more than $40 below it, while the current price is just under $350 above.

Other calculations arrive at almost the same figure. Depending on the data source and closing time, the line sits between $76,500 and $76,550. That spread does not change the picture: at a price of $76,887 the line is less than half a percent away in every case.

What the 100-day moving average measures and why traders watch it

A moving average is the mean of closing prices over a fixed number of past days, shifted forward by one day each day. The 100-day line therefore covers a little over three months. It reacts more slowly than the 20-day or 50-day line and faster than the widely quoted 200-day line. Many traders read it as the boundary of the medium-term trend. As long as the price closes above it, the move since the summer is considered intact.

The line only has an effect because many market participants watch it. Buy orders often cluster just above it, hedges and stop orders just below. A stop-loss is an order that automatically sells a position once a set price is reached. If the price falls through such a zone, these orders can accelerate the move. If buyers hold, a rebound often follows. The line guarantees neither outcome.

Above it since August 18: the history of the line

According to our analysis, the last daily close below the 100-day average came on August 18. Bitcoin closed at around $64,700 that day, with the line at $66,400. Then the rally began that carried the price to around $86,600 by September 21, the high of the past six months.

Since that high, bitcoin has lost a little more than 11 percent. At the same time the average itself has risen, because the weak summer prices are gradually dropping out of the calculation window. At the end of September the line was still around $70,100, in mid-October $73,500, and today $76,540. Price and line have moved towards each other from both sides. That is why the gap is so small today, even though the price did not collapse last week.

50, 100 and 200 days: where the moving averages stand now

The 100-day line is not the only level nearby. Our calculation from CoinGecko daily data gives the following picture: the 20-day average is around $80,530 and the 50-day average around $81,930. Bitcoin broke below both at the end of October. The simple 200-day average sits well below at around $73,160.

The chart below shows the exponentially weighted averages, which give more weight to recent prices. Based on CoinMarketCap data, the exponential 200-day line is around $76,310, almost level with the simple 100-day average. Two methods, one zone: between $76,300 and $76,550 the two lines that traders use for the medium-term trend meet.

Since Monday's price report: $1,556 lower

On Monday morning bitcoin stood at $78,443. Our price report on October's ETF flows had described the $78,000 level as short-term support, with the price $443 above it at the time. That level did not hold. Since then the price has fallen by $1,556, or 2.0 percent, and the debate has shifted from $78,000 to the zone around $76,500.

The follow-up test in US spot ETFs is still open. On Friday, October 30, $643.3 million flowed out of them, the largest daily outflow since the end of June. On Tuesday morning the Farside Investors table showed only part of the funds for Monday, so Monday cannot yet be read as a reversal or a continuation. What is new since Monday is the date that now overshadows all others: the US election.

US midterms on Tuesday: why election night falls on the European morning

Today the US votes on every seat in the House of Representatives and on about a third of the Senate. Polling stations close on Tuesday evening local time, which is between midnight and early Wednesday morning in Central Europe. The first reliable results will therefore arrive during hours when hardly anyone in Germany is trading, while the crypto market runs around the clock.

For crypto, regulation is what is mainly on the ballot. The majorities in Congress will decide whether a new market structure law for digital assets has a chance next year. The outcomes we have modelled for bitcoin, XRP and Solana are in our five scenarios for the US midterms. For the price on Wednesday morning, something simpler counts first: an election night brings movement in thin trading, and thin trading reacts more strongly to large orders.

Fear & Greed at 26: sentiment turned within five days

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me measures crypto market sentiment on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It stands at 26 on Tuesday, in fear territory. On October 29 it was still at 51, which is neutral. In between came Friday's outflow, the drop back below $78,000 and caution ahead of the election.

A reading of 26 is not an extreme. On this scale, extreme fear starts below 25. Sentiment is subdued but not panicked, and that fits the chart: the price is giving way without any visible sell-off.

One-year holding period: November 2025 buyers are about 28 percent down

For investors in Germany, today also has a tax angle. Gains from selling bitcoin are tax-free under Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act if more than one year passes between purchase and sale. Within this holding period they are taxable once all private capital gains in a year reach the exemption limit of 1,000 euros. Our overview of the crypto holding period reform summarises where the planned change stands.

A year ago, in early November 2025, bitcoin traded at around $106,000. Anyone who bought then is about 28 percent down in dollar terms today, and the holding period for those purchases is expiring right now. That has a consequence that is often overlooked: a loss realised within the holding period can be offset against gains from other private sales. Once the period has expired, it no longer counts for tax purposes.

What matters are the euro values at the time of purchase and sale and, with several purchases, the order in which holdings are treated as sold. Whether selling before the deadline makes sense depends on your other gains and is a question for a tax adviser. Either way, you should know the purchase date of every single position. A crypto tax tool shows it for each exchange and wallet.

Bitcoin levels to the upside and downside

To the downside, the zone between $76,300 and $76,550 is the first level, formed by the simple 100-day average and the exponential 200-day line. Below that, the simple 200-day average sits at around $73,160. A daily close below the first zone would be the first since August 18.

To the upside, bitcoin first has to reclaim the $78,000 level that still held on Monday; the high of the past 24 hours was $78,374. Above that come the 20-day average at around $80,530 and the 50-day average at around $81,930. Only above this range would the decline since the end of October be recovered.

If you want to buy or sell on a night with large expected swings, a limit order works better than a market order. A limit order is only filled at the stated price or better, which protects you from a poor fill in thin trading. Almost all regulated crypto exchanges offer this order type, some with lower fees than for market orders.

Our view on the 100-day line

In our editorial view, a test of the zone is more likely than a quick recovery of $78,000. Three documented points support this: the $643.3 million outflow from US ETFs on Friday, the drop in the Fear & Greed Index from 51 to 26 within five days, and the loss of the 20-day and 50-day lines at the end of October. Against it, the move has been orderly so far: no daily loss of more than three percent, volume of $26.7 billion without outliers, and sentiment that is not yet in extreme territory.

None of this is a recommendation to buy or sell. The weekly close says more than a single dip below the line on election night. Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, and a total loss is possible.

100-day line: below $76,540 the daily close counts

1. Wait for the daily close: A brief dip below $76,540 on election night is not yet a trend break. If you want to add to your position, you can do so in fixed instalments through a bitcoin savings plan instead of hunting for the one right moment.
2. Check purchase dates: For positions from November 2025, the holding period is ending now. A tax tool shows which holdings are still within the period.
3. Place orders with a limit: In thin overnight trading, a limit order protects against outliers. You will find the providers' order types and fees in the exchange comparison.

(As of November 3, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)