Solana Price Prediction: China's Central Bank Targets the Shanghai Campaign. What Now for SOL?

China's central bank has moved openly against Solana, yet the price is still holding its 200-day line. What is confirmed: on November 6, an official of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) classified the Solana promotion in Shanghai as illegal financial activity, the Solana Accelerate China 2026 event series was halted, and the Chinese service providers involved are under investigation. On Saturday afternoon SOL trades at $89.98, just above its 200-day average of around $89. Our assessment follows further down: the China move weighs on sentiment, but what matters for the coming days is the shrinking stablecoin supply on the Solana blockchain.

Where the price could head over the coming months is covered in our Solana price prediction. This article sticks to what has changed since Friday: an authority that explicitly classifies SOL as a cryptocurrency, a market losing capital, and a price sitting on exactly the level that has set the direction since early November.

China's central bank on the Solana advertising: what was said on November 6

The statements come from an interview that an unnamed PBoC official gave to the state-affiliated newspaper Financial News. According to a Cointelegraph report of November 6, he accused Solana of promoting its brand through domestic firms, including with advertising on a building in the Lujiazui financial district. Solana's technical services supported the issuance and trading of crypto assets, and under Chinese law those were "illegal financial activities".

The legal basis is a notice from February 2026. According to U.Today, it was issued jointly by eight Chinese authorities, replaces the 2021 rules and prohibits promoting foreign crypto projects inside the country. Anyone who helps is personally liable, including private individuals and companies in China. The same report says the central bank explicitly classifies SOL as a virtual currency and points out that stablecoins such as USDT, which are banned in China, circulate on the Solana blockchain.

One point matters for context: the central bank is targeting advertising and business activity on the Chinese mainland. It does not touch the blockchain itself, validators outside China or trading on exchanges in Europe. The Solana Foundation had not issued an official statement on the interview by Saturday afternoon.

Citigroup Tower and Shangri-La: how the Solana Accelerate China 2026 tour unfolded

The trigger was a light installation on the evening of October 14. According to U.Today, a team from the Solana ecosystem, working with Shanghai service providers, projected huge SOL symbols onto the facade of the Citigroup Tower in Lujiazui. Two days later, on the morning of October 16, police ended an event at the Shangri-La hotel. The report says the tour was meant to cover four cities: Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing. It was marketed around AI agents, robotics and software development rather than crypto.

Lily Liu, president of the Solana Foundation, attributed the cancellation at the time to demand: registrations had quadrupled and exceeded the cap filed with the authorities, and the foundation wanted to comply with local rules. The November 6 interview now puts a different explanation on the table, and it comes from the body that supervises financial business in China.

The conflict is not new. Cointelegraph counts the Shanghai cancellation as the second disruption of a Solana event in mainland China within two years; in October 2025 a meetup in Shenzhen was cut short over capacity and safety concerns.

SOL at $89.98: what has changed in the price since Friday

On Friday, in our Solana price prediction on ETF flows, we put the price at $91.12 and named the zone around $89 as the key support. That zone has held. According to CoinGecko, the intraday low up to Saturday afternoon was $89.59 and the high $90.92. That is a loss of 1.1 percent on the previous day, 6.3 percent over seven days and 20 percent over 30 days.

What is new is the comparison with the night of the projection. On the following day, October 15, SOL closed at $104.19 according to CoinGecko's daily data. Since then the coin has lost around 14 percent. Much of that drop, however, came in phases when Bitcoin and Ethereum were also falling; Ethereum is down 11.3 percent over 30 days, Bitcoin 7.8 percent. Solana therefore swings harder than the two larger assets, a pattern that shows up regularly among altcoins in falling markets.

Trading volume across all venues tracked by CoinGecko came to $1.42 billion in the 24 hours to Saturday afternoon. For a weekend day that is no sell-off, but it is no return of buyers either.

Stablecoins on the Solana blockchain: $1.6 billion less in 30 days

For the direction of the price, one figure that rarely makes headlines matters more than the news from Beijing. A stablecoin is a token whose value is pegged to a national currency, usually the US dollar. It is the cash of the blockchain: anyone buying SOL or other tokens on decentralised exchanges usually pays in USDC or USDT.

According to DefiLlama, the supply of dollar stablecoins on the Solana blockchain stood at $16.36 billion on October 8. On November 7 it is $14.76 billion, a decline of $1.6 billion or 9.8 percent. Since October 31 alone, the supply has shrunk from $15.42 billion to $14.76 billion. Over the same period, the value locked in Solana applications (TVL, total value locked) fell from $5.70 billion on October 29 to $5.21 billion, DefiLlama data show.

Why this matters takes two sentences to explain. When stablecoins leave a blockchain, the very money used to buy dips goes with them. When they come back, that is often the first measurable sign that buyers are committing capital again, even before the price turns.

Trading on the Solana blockchain's decentralised exchanges has also slowed. DefiLlama shows volume of $2.20 billion for Thursday, November 5, and $1.48 billion for Friday.

Why China's ban hits the SOL price only to a limited extent

Trading and advertising crypto has been prohibited on the Chinese mainland for years. Anyone there who wanted to buy SOL already had to use foreign platforms before November 6. The interview therefore does not tighten any existing rule; it makes the authority's stance on one specific project public. According to reports on the interview, the PBoC now intends to focus on domestic traders and on Chinese offshoots of foreign platforms.

The impact will be felt mainly in the Solana Foundation's business in Asia. According to the U.Today report, the foundation had promoted an office in Shanghai, and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao publicly praised the appearance as a success that BNB Chain itself had not achieved. That expansion is now in doubt. For demand for SOL on exchanges in Europe and the US, where the spot ETFs trade, it implies no direct outflow.

Solana chart: 200-day line at $89, 100-day line at $99

The levels are derived from CoinGecko's daily closing prices over the past 200 days, recalculated on Saturday. A moving average is the mean of closing prices over a fixed period; many traders read it as a trend boundary.

Levels to the downside

The first support is the 200-day line at around $89.00, with Saturday's low of $89.59 just above it. On November 5 and 6 the price dipped into this zone, and both daily closes, at $89.23 and $90.06, stayed above it. Below that, there is little support from the summer until the $72 to $75 range: on August 2, SOL hit $71.89, its lowest level since early July, and in mid-August the coin traded at $75.34. In between sits the July 22 close of $78.09.

Levels to the upside

The first hurdle is the zone from $94.48 to $95.51, the daily closes of November 2 and 5. The 100-day line runs at $99.21, the 50-day line at $107.71. As long as the price stays below the 100-day line, the downtrend from the September 26 high of $122.08 remains intact.

Our view on the Solana price prediction: China moves sentiment, not demand

Our view: the Chinese central bank's move is bad news for the price in the short term, but a known quantity in the long term. In its favour, the price stayed above $89 on Friday and Saturday despite the report, and daily volume did not swell. Against it stands the stablecoin supply: $1.6 billion less in 30 days and falling trading on decentralised exchanges show that capital is leaving the Solana blockchain. As long as that supply keeps falling, the fuel for a recovery above the 100-day line at $99 is missing. If it rises again, we would read that as the first reliable signal of a bottom.

What would overturn this view: a daily close well below $89. The 200-day line, which has held since early November, would then be broken, and attention would turn to the $72 to $78 range from the summer. We do not derive a buy recommendation from either direction; a total loss is always possible with cryptocurrencies.

SOL in Germany: MiCA route to buy, staking and the holding period

For investors in Germany, Beijing's move changes nothing about the legal position. SOL can be bought, held and staked legally there. Since the transition period of the EU's MiCA regulation (Markets in Crypto-Assets) ended, crypto service providers may only offer their services in Germany with an authorisation. Which providers hold such a licence is shown in our comparison of regulated crypto exchanges; what the licence requires in detail is set out in our overview of the obligations under the MiCA licence.

For tax purposes, SOL held as private assets falls under the holding period in Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act: gains from a sale after more than one year are tax-free, before that they are taxable, provided total private disposal gains in the year exceed the exemption threshold of 1,000 euros. Losses from a sale within the period can be offset against gains from the same year, and the cut-off is December 31. The state of the political debate on the rule is tracked on our page on the crypto holding period.

Anyone staking SOL receives the rewards as income at the time they are credited, valued at that day's price. With the price at around $90, that value is lower than in September, when it was above $120. The holding period for the staked coins themselves is not extended by staking.

Solana after China's move: below $89 things get tight

1. Check where you buy: anyone buying or adding SOL should use a provider with MiCA authorisation; the overview is in our crypto exchange comparison.
2. Weigh staking returns: SOL holders can earn returns through staking; lock-up periods and fees differ considerably between providers, see staking platforms compared.
3. Record losses before December 31: anyone who bought SOL at higher prices should document purchase date and cost basis, for example with one of the crypto tax tools, so that losses can be offset in the current year.

(As of November 7, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)