Uptober put to the numbers: Bitcoin rose in six of eight Octobers, but not the last one

Bitcoin has started October 2026 with a small gain and costs around $84,800 on Sunday morning, October 4 (according to CoinGecko). The month has a nickname among crypto investors, Uptober, and for the Bitcoin price prediction it is worth looking at how much there is to that reputation. We have analysed the monthly candles from Binance since 2018.

Bitcoin's October record since 2018

Six of eight Octobers ended in the black for Bitcoin. The strongest was 2021 with plus 39.9 percent, followed by 2023 with plus 28.5 percent and 2020 with plus 28.0 percent. Then come 2024 with plus 11.0 percent, 2019 with plus 10.3 percent and 2022 with plus 5.5 percent. Only 2018 with minus 3.8 percent and 2025 with minus 3.9 percent ended in the red (monthly candles from Binance against USDT, from October 1 to 31).

The record is better than that of most altcoins. Solana, for example, has ended only three of six Octobers in the black since 2020, as our October analysis of Solana shows. Eight years is a small sample, though, and the swings range from minus 4 to plus 40 percent. A rule cannot be derived from that, but a tendency can.

What October 2025 teaches

Last October shows how quickly the month can turn. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin reached its record high of around $126,000 (CoinGecko). Four days later, on October 10, US President Trump announced tariffs of 100 percent on Chinese imports. Within 24 hours, leveraged positions worth more than $19 billion were force-closed, more than on any day before, as CoinDesk Research has worked through. Bitcoin closed the month down 3.9 percent, and the price today is still around a third away from that record.

The lesson from it concerns leverage more than the price. Anyone who held without leverage had a bad day. Anyone who traded with high leverage often lost everything they had put in.

Bitcoin price prediction: the levels for October

The one-year chart shows the record, the slump that followed and the recovery since the summer. Bitcoin sits above its 50-day moving average (around $78,300) and its 200-day moving average (around $75,300), both calculated from CoinMarketCap daily closes.

Since September 21 every daily close has been between $83,479 and $86,597. The upper level around $86,600 is therefore the first hurdle on the upside, the lower one around $83,500 the first support. October opened at $83,624 on Binance, just above that support. Why the inflows into the US spot ETFs have not lifted the price above this range so far is something we set out on Saturday.

Bitcoin: The key points for your decision

Three points sum up the situation. First: the October record speaks slightly in favour of Bitcoin, as six of eight years ended in the black. Second: last October showed that a single day can turn the month around, above all for anyone trading with leverage. Third: the price is stuck in a range between $83,500 and $86,600, and only a close outside it will show the direction for the month.

Anyone who wants to buy more in October can spread the entry over a savings plan instead of betting on the one right day; our comparison of Bitcoin savings plans puts the providers side by side. Anyone taking profits should know the holding period: Bitcoin held for less than a year is taxable on sale in Germany once the annual allowance of 1,000 euros is exceeded. Crypto assets fluctuate heavily and a total loss is possible. This article analyses past price data; it is not a forecast and not a recommendation to buy or sell Bitcoin.

(As of October 4, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)