Midterms 2026 vs 2024: The Biggest Changes Since Trump's Win, From Young Voters to Bitcoin
Two years after Trump's win, young voters, Latinos and men have moved sharply, eggs are cheaper, gasoline is dearer and Bitcoin (BTC) trails gold. The biggest changes between 2024 and the 2026 midterms, in numbers.
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Two years after Donald Trump won back the White House, the 2026 midterms show how far the country has moved. In the preliminary NBC News exit poll, voters under 30 went from D+11 in 2024 to D+47, Latino voters from D+5 to D+27 and men from R+12 to D+0. Since Election Day 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) stands at +12.6 percent, gold at +46.8 and the S&P 500 future at +30.5 (11:56 CET). Eggs are a third cheaper than two years ago, and gasoline costs 37 percent more.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer read the vote on 4 November as a verdict on living costs:
Trump's reaction: he accepts the result, blames fellow Republicans and promises vetoes. What it means for Bitcoin, the Trump coin and the CLARITY Act.
Midterms 2026 vs 2024: the key numbers
- Young voters: D+11 in 2024, D+47 now.
- Independents: D+3 in 2024, D+17 now.
- Economy: 31 percent rated it good or excellent in 2024, 25 percent now.
- States: 42 of 44 statewide races with at least 60 percent counted run ahead of Harris's 2024 margin for Democrats (11:56 CET).
- Bitcoin: +12.6 percent since the close on 5 November 2024, Ethereum (ETH) −4.8 percent.
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Exit polls 2024 vs 2026: which voters moved most
The table sets the 2024 exit poll against the first figures for 2026. Younger voters, Latinos and Asian American voters moved most. Voters aged 65 and over are the one age group that moved toward Republicans, from R+1 to R+3. Keep two things in mind: 2024 was a vote for president and 2026 a vote for the House, and midterm electorates look different. Voters aged 65 and over made up 28 percent of the electorate in 2024 and 35 percent now, those under 30 fell from 14 to 11 percent. Exit polls get reweighted as votes come in, so these numbers can still change.
| Group | 2024: Harris vs Trump | 2026: House vote | Shift in points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters 18 to 29 | 54 : 43 | 72 : 25 | +36 |
| Asian American voters | 55 : 40 | 70 : 29 | +26 |
| Latino men | 44 : 54 | 56 : 41 | +25 |
| Latino voters | 51 : 46 | 62 : 35 | +22 |
| Voters 30 to 44 | 51 : 47 | 60 : 36 | +20 |
| Voters 45 to 64 | 44 : 54 | 51 : 47 | +14 |
| Independents | 49 : 46 | 56 : 39 | +14 |
| Men | 43 : 55 | 49 : 49 | +12 |
| White voters | 42 : 57 | 48 : 51 | +12 |
| Women | 53 : 45 | 58 : 40 | +10 |
| Black voters | 86 : 13 | 89 : 9 | +7 |
| Voters 65 and over | 49 : 50 | 48 : 51 | −2 |
Regulated crypto exchanges comparedWhich states moved most since 2024
Exit polls are surveys, counted votes are not. This table compares the margin in each state's top 2026 race with Trump's margin in 2024, for races with at least 60 percent counted at 11:56 CET. Early counts can still overstate a shift, and a popular incumbent or a weak candidate can move a state on their own. For the county detail, see our pieces on Florida, Texas and Ohio.
| State | 2026 race | Trump 2024 | 2026 so far | Shift | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | Governor: Green / Cordery | D+23.1 | D+49.8 | +26.7 | 75 % |
| Texas | Senate: Talarico / Paxton | R+13.7 | D+11.7 | +25.4 | 94 % |
| Pennsylvania | Governor: Shapiro / Garrity | R+1.7 | D+21.9 | +23.6 | 98 % |
| Rhode Island | Senate: Reed / McKay | D+13.9 | D+37.1 | +23.2 | 97 % |
| Mississippi | Senate: Colom / Hyde-Smith | R+22.9 | D+0.0 | +22.9 | 96 % |
| North Carolina | Senate: Cooper / Whatley | R+3.2 | D+19.6 | +22.8 | 99 % |
| South Carolina | Senate: Andrews / Graham | R+17.9 | D+4.4 | +22.3 | 99 % |
| West Virginia | Senate: Fetty Anderson / Moore Capito | R+41.9 | R+20.4 | +21.5 | 94 % |
| New Jersey | Senate: Booker / Murphy | D+5.9 | D+27.2 | +21.3 | 92 % |
| Alabama | Senate: Wess / Moore | R+30.6 | R+9.4 | +21.2 | 99 % |
Prices since 2024: eggs down, gasoline up
Eggs were the symbol of the 2024 campaign, and they no longer fit it. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a dozen at $3.37 in October 2024 and $2.27 in September 2026. Gasoline went the other way as the Iran war pushed up oil. Wages and prices rose almost in step, so the average paycheck has only kept pace. 25 percent of voters now call the economy good or excellent, down from 31 percent.
| Item | October 2024 | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eggs (dozen) | $3.37 | $2.27 | −33 % |
| Gasoline, regular (gallon) | $3.28 | $4.48 | +37 % |
| Coffee (pound) | $6.64 | $9.33 | +40 % |
| Ground beef (pound) | $5.59 | $6.79 | +22 % |
| Consumer prices (index) | 315.664 | 336.940 | +6.7 % |
| Average hourly earnings | $35.46 | $37.81 | +6.6 % |
Crypto brokers comparedBitcoin, gold and stocks since Election Day 2024
Crypto was the loudest winner of the 2024 election. Bitcoin jumped from about $69,360 to $75,640 the day after the vote. Two years later it stands at $78,126, while gold and US stocks have run far ahead. Ethereum is below where it stood on Election Day. The next test is what a changed Congress means for crypto rules, which we cover in our live ticker. This is a look back and no forecast.
| Market | Close 5 Nov 2024 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $69,360 | $78,126 | +12.6 % |
| Ethereum | $2,423 | $2,306 | −4.8 % |
| S&P 500 future | $5,812 | $7,587 | +30.5 % |
| Gold | $2,750 | $4,036 | +46.8 % |
| Oil (WTI) | $71.99 | $96.36 | +33.9 % |
From crypto's best election to a failed CLARITY Act
In 2024 Fairshake spent about $133 million on 68 races and beat Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Two years later Brown won Ohio's other Senate seat, despite more than $50 million in crypto-backed ads. In March 2025 Trump signed the order for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Yet the big market structure law, the CLARITY Act, failed a procedural vote 49 to 50 in the Senate on 15 September 2026, short of the 60 votes it needed. TD Cowen does not expect passage in the next two years if Democrats control Congress. What it means is in our CLARITY Act explainer. If you are positioning for that, compare regulated crypto exchanges and crypto brokers first. This article is not investment advice.
What has changed in Congress since 2024
Republicans came out of 2024 with 220 of 435 House seats and 53 of 100 Senate seats. At 11:56 CET, NBC News had called 231 House seats for Democrats and 144 for Republicans, and the Senate stood at 54 to 43, including seats not up for election. NBC News projects Democrats win the House. Its estimate for the final House split is 258 to 177. NBC News projects Democrats win the Senate.
FAQ: midterms 2026 vs 2024
Transparency note: This article was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by our editorial team before publication. All figures and claims were checked against the primary sources linked in the text. The feature image was generated with AI.
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