Dogecoin on US midterm night: just under 16 percent of the 2024 election rally is left

What is established: Dogecoin cost around $0.0752, or €0.0672, on Tuesday evening, November 3, 2026, according to CoinGecko. On the day after the 2024 presidential election the coin stood at just under $0.20, and five weeks later it reached $0.4843. Just under 16 percent of that peak is left today. Our assessment of how much today's midterms mean for DOGE follows further down.

The comparison is not an end in itself. In 2024, Dogecoin was the coin that reacted most strongly to US politics, because Elon Musk played a role in the campaign and the later advisory body was named D.O.G.E. Anyone holding DOGE today or planning to buy more should know what remains of that link, and which deadlines are currently running for their own purchases. How the Dogecoin valuation might look over a horizon of months is covered on our prediction page.

US midterms on November 3: when the first polling stations close

The US votes today: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and just over a third of the Senate are up for election, along with numerous governorships. The midterm decides whether the president's party keeps its majority in both chambers. That matters for crypto legislation such as the market structure rules, because every bill has to pass both chambers.

The first polling stations in the eastern US close from midnight German time; since US daylight saving time ended on November 1, the gap to the East Coast is back to six hours. How long the count takes depends on close races. In 2022, the majority in the House was only settled eight days after the election. The outcomes being discussed for bitcoin, XRP and Solana were summarised on Monday in our five scenarios for the US midterms.

Dogecoin on Tuesday evening: $0.0752 and down 21 percent in 30 days

The mood ahead of election night is calm but weak. Over the past 24 hours DOGE gained 1.9 percent, fluctuating only between $0.0735 and $0.0755. Over seven days it is down 4.1 percent, over 30 days 21.1 percent. Daily volume was around $291 million and market capitalisation $11.8 billion. Bitcoin held up better over the same period: down 9.1 percent over 30 days at a price of around $77,760.

Yesterday we described how large wallets had sold around 120 million DOGE since Thursday and the price had fallen to $0.0737 (Dogecoin on November 2). Since then the coin has regained almost two percent. Monday's daily low of $0.0732 held, but the October 29 range between $0.0743 and $0.0815 has not yet been reclaimed. New on Tuesday was House of Doge's exit from Nasdaq, which barely moved the coin itself.

Election days compared, daily closing prices

The overview below sets the three most recent US election dates side by side. The figures are daily closes in UTC for the DOGE/USDT pair on Binance, our own analysis.

Both swings were large but went in opposite directions, and in both cases the cause lay only partly in the election itself.

The 2024 election: how the D.O.G.E. effect nearly tripled Dogecoin's value

On election day 2024, DOGE closed at $0.1700. On the night of the count, the price jumped almost 30 percent within one trading day, from $0.1690 to $0.2194. On November 12, 2024, Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk, together with Vivek Ramaswamy, would lead an advisory body on government efficiency, the Department of Government Efficiency, abbreviated D.O.G.E. That same day Dogecoin reached $0.4386, 158 percent above the election-day close.

The peak came on December 8, 2024 at $0.4843, 185 percent above the election-day close. The rally therefore had an identifiable trigger: a coin bearing the name of an agency whose head was Dogecoin's best-known champion. Fundamental network data such as transactions or fee revenue played hardly any role in the move.

The 2022 midterms: the slump came from the FTX collapse, not the election

The midterm election on November 8, 2022 fell in the week the FTX exchange collapsed. On election day itself, Binance announced it intended to take over FTX and withdrew the offer the following day. DOGE fell from $0.1130 to $0.0777 on November 8, a decline of 31 percent within a single trading day. On the day after the election, DOGE closed 33 percent below its close on the day before the vote.

Anyone concluding that midterms are bad for Dogecoin is misreading the figures. By November 30, 2022, DOGE had recovered almost all of the loss and was only 4 percent below its pre-election level, even though FTX had by then filed for bankruptcy. In 2022 the election date was a coincidence of timing; the trigger lay within the industry itself.

Musk, D.O.G.E. and Dogecoin: the political tailwind has been missing since May 2025

At the end of May 2025, Elon Musk left his role as a special adviser to the government. With that, the coin lost the link that had carried the rally after the 2024 election. Since then DOGE has again moved mainly with the overall market and with news from its own orbit: Bitwise wound down its DOGE ETF in October, the brand agreement between the Dogecoin Foundation and House of Doge ended, and on Tuesday Nasdaq suspended House of Doge's shares.

A look at the same day last year shows how far the coin has moved away from the election phase. On November 3, 2025, DOGE closed at $0.1674, and on November 4, 2025 at $0.1622. Today the price is a good 54 percent lower. Today's election therefore takes place in a market in which DOGE no longer has a political connection of its own. A reaction like 2024 would need a new trigger, and there is none on the ballot.

Holding period: anyone who bought DOGE on November 4, 2025 reaches the anniversary on Wednesday

For investors in Germany, one deadline matters more this evening than any projection. Under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act, selling cryptocurrencies is a private disposal transaction if no more than a year passes between purchase and sale. Gains from it are taxable once all private disposal gains in a year together reach €1,000. This exemption limit has applied since 2024. After one year a gain is tax-free, but a loss then no longer counts for tax purposes either.

It is precisely this second part that affects many DOGE buyers right now. Anyone who bought on November 4, 2025 at the closing price of $0.1622 is around 54 percent down today. That deadline ends at the close of November 4, 2026, which is Wednesday. If you sell by then, the loss is a loss from a private disposal transaction. It can be offset against gains of the same kind, for example from bitcoin sales within the holding period, and carried back to the previous year or forward to later years. If you sell from November 5, the loss is lost for tax purposes.

Which purchases are affected

Each individual purchase is what counts. Anyone who bought over months via a savings plan has a separate deadline for each instalment. The tax authorities allow the FIFO method, under which the coins bought first are deemed sold first. A sale today therefore hits the oldest holdings first, which are often already tax-free. Whether a sale with a later buy-back is worthwhile depends on whether you have gains from private disposals in the same year that the loss can be set against. Without such gains, it remains as a carry-forward.

The deadline itself is under political debate. The cabinet has not yet taken a decision on the holding period; what is known so far is collected in our overview of the status of the holding period reform. Today's rule applies to purchases made in 2025. A tool that reads purchase dates and deadlines per instalment can be found in our comparison of crypto tax tools.

Leverage on election night: with a five-times long, liquidation sits near $0.061

Election nights are dangerous for leveraged positions because wide ranges can open up within a few hours. In 2022 DOGE fell 31 percent within a trading day, and in 2024 the coin rose almost 30 percent on the night of the count. Both moves would have wiped out any five-times leveraged position on the wrong side.

For context at today's price: a long position with five-times leverage loses all its capital if DOGE falls by around 20 percent. The liquidation therefore sits near $0.061, slightly above depending on the exchange and the maintenance margin. With ten-times leverage, a decline of just under 10 percent is enough, a fall below $0.068. A short with five-times leverage is liquidated on a rise to about $0.090. Anyone trading sets a stop that triggers before these levels and should expect executions at worse prices when the order book is thin overnight.

Buying under MiCA: Dogecoin from authorised providers in Germany

Since Germany's transitional period ended on December 30, 2025, crypto service providers may only operate there with authorisation under the EU's MiCA regulation. MiCA stands for Markets in Crypto-Assets and sets out EU-wide which obligations exchanges and custodians must meet. Whether a provider is authorised is shown in the register of the European Securities and Markets Authority, ESMA. If you buy DOGE through a provider without an entry, you lack a point of contact in the EU in the event of a dispute.

Two more points belong before any purchase. First, fees: for a coin that moves only 2.7 percent in a day, a one percent mark-up on an instant purchase eats a noticeable part of the move. Second, custody: DOGE has no native staking, and yield offers for the coin are based on the provider's lending business and carry its default risk.

Our view: the midterms are a sideshow for Dogecoin

In the editorial team's view, there is little to suggest today's election will move DOGE the way 2024 did. The evidence: the coin has had no direct political link since May 2025, the 2022 swings stemmed from FTX rather than the election result, and for weeks the market has been reacting mainly to industry news such as the Binance hack, the Bitwise exit and House of Doge. A stronger reaction is supported by the fact that, according to our analysis of October 16, 2026, four out of five leveraged DOGE accounts were long, and a surprise in the Senate can move the whole market. DOGE would then follow the market, usually with a larger swing. This is not a buy recommendation; a total loss remains possible with any coin.

Dogecoin after election night: until Wednesday the loss still counts

1. Check your purchase dates. Download your exchange's transaction list and mark all DOGE purchases from the past twelve months. A tax tool from our comparison calculates the gain, loss and deadline for each purchase.
2. Check your provider. If you buy or sell on election night, do it with a MiCA-authorised provider. Which ones qualify is shown in our overview of regulated crypto exchanges.
3. Limit leverage. Anyone trading DOGE with leverage works out the liquidation level in advance and sticks to leverage that can survive a 30 percent move. Platforms with transparent margins are compared on our page on perp DEX providers.

(As of November 3, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)