Binance XRP scarcity index at a four-year high: XRP price prediction ahead of the weakest weekly close since August

XRP trades at around $1.16 on Sunday morning, roughly €1.05, and is heading for its weakest weekly close since mid-August. At the same time XRP is scarcer on the world's largest exchange than it has been for four years: the scarcity index that the analytics firm CryptoQuant calculates for XRP on Binance has climbed to 2.1. What is documented: on November 4, 418.5 million XRP left Binance, the US spot ETFs did not record a single day of net inflows in the entire first week of November, and the price has lost almost 7 percent since Monday. Our assessment follows further down. A shrinking exchange supply lifts the price only once buyers return, and so far they are missing.

Where the price could head over a horizon of months is set out in our XRP price prediction, with scenarios up to 2030. This piece stays with the next few days. It explains what the scarcity index measures, why it clashes with the empty ETF books and which price levels count until mid-November. Prices are taken from the Kraken and Coinbase exchanges, as of early Sunday morning, November 8.

Binance XRP scarcity index at 2.1: the highest reading in four years

The Exchange Scarcity Index is a CryptoQuant metric that shows whether the tradable stock of a coin on an exchange is shrinking or growing. A positive value means more coins are leaving the exchange than are being deposited, so the tradable supply gets smaller. A negative value shows the opposite: deposits, which usually come before selling.

For XRP on Binance, the index sat in negative territory throughout September and October, according to a Benzinga report based on CryptoQuant data. In the first week of November it swung sharply positive and reached 2.1, the highest level since 2022. The timing is notable. CryptoQuant reported the reading on Thursday, a day on which XRP fell by around 5 percent.

An index of this kind measures movements on the blockchain, not intentions. It shows that coins have left the exchange, but not who moved them or where they went. That is exactly where the caveat comes in that CryptoQuant itself attaches.

418.5 million XRP in one day: where the Binance outflows come from

On November 4, users withdrew 418.5 million XRP from Binance, worth just under $540 million at the time. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, it was the largest outflow day in nine months. It even exceeded October 29, the day of the attack on Binance, when 315 million XRP left the exchange.

Darkfost is cautious about the figure himself. Part of the movement may reflect internal transfers between the exchange's own wallets rather than fresh demand from investors. Whether the outflows continue or were a one-off spike will only become clear over the following days. Outflows of this size do shrink the stock that can be sold at short notice, but they do not guarantee a recovery.

It helps to look at the other side. Anyone moving coins off an exchange into self-custody is usually not planning a quick sale. A wallet change after a security incident, as seems plausible after October 29, has little to do with buying interest. Both motives leave the same trace on the blockchain.

XRP spot ETFs: a trading week without a single day of net inflows

The second half of the picture comes from the exchange-traded funds in the US. According to SoSoValue data that Bitcoin.com summarised on Saturday, money moved on only one day in the week from November 2 to 6: on Monday, Canary Capital's XRPC fund saw $529,500 withdrawn. From Tuesday to Friday, every XRP spot ETF showed a zero.

Assets under management fell over the week from $1.425 billion to $1.34 billion. The decline is almost entirely down to the falling price, not to redemptions. Cumulative net inflows since launch remain at $1.81 billion. October was already weak: at $18.8 million of inflows, it fell far behind September with around $121 million.

For Bitcoin the week looked even worse. The US spot ETFs on the largest cryptocurrency lost around $1.3 billion, according to the same data. For XRP this means the headwind does not stem from XRP-specific news but from the market as a whole, where institutional money is currently being withdrawn rather than invested.

XRP weekly close on Sunday: heading for the lowest close since August

The weekly close is the closing price of Sunday's daily candle at midnight UTC, which is 1 a.m. on Monday in Germany. Chart analysts weight it more heavily than any daily price because short spikes drop out. The Sunday closes on Kraken show how far XRP has fallen back since late summer:

Since August 23, no Sunday has closed below $1.249. If XRP stays below that mark tonight, it will be the lowest weekly close since August 16. What stands out in the series is the jump at the end of August, when XRP rose within a single week from below $1.09 to as much as $1.70. Almost all of that one week's gain has now been given back.

The moving averages also sit above the price. On our own calculation from Kraken's daily closes, the 200-day average is around $1.27 and the 50-day average around $1.37. Both therefore act as resistance, not support.

Since Saturday's long squeeze: the $1.15 zone has held

On Saturday morning our article on the long squeeze at $1.15 described the zone around $1.15 as the decisive level. The daily low on OKX was $1.1518 at the time. Since then, on Kraken XRP slipped to $1.1489 on Saturday but closed the day at $1.162. Since midnight UTC the price has moved only between $1.154 and $1.165.

The zone has therefore survived a second test, if only just. Two things are new since Saturday: the complete ETF figures for the week, which show a zero for Friday as well, and the reading of the scarcity index, which puts a measurable frame around the Binance outflows. The hurdle above is unchanged, because XRP has not reached the $1.20 zone since Friday. The high since Saturday was $1.181.

Whales and sentiment: 60 million XRP bought in seven days

Set against weak fund demand are purchases by large addresses. Analyst Ali Martinez counted around 60 million XRP bought by so-called whales within seven days, according to a CoinCentral report. In the crypto market, whales are addresses with very large holdings. According to an analysis by BeInCrypto, the number of wallets holding at least one million XRP reached its highest level of 2026 this week.

Martinez also points to sentiment on social media, which he says has fallen to its lowest level for XRP since July. He reads this as a possible contrarian signal and sees an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart, with the neckline at $1.60 and a target of $2.10 in the event of a breakout. The neckline is still around 38 percent away, however, so the scenario is a template for weeks and months, not for the coming days.

The whale purchases have not lifted the price so far, but they fit the Binance outflows: large holdings that move from the exchange into self-custody are not ready to be sold in the short term.

XRP levels: $1.21 and $1.34 to the upside, $1.11 to the downside

The analysts at More Crypto Online saw the first support at $1.21, the 61.8 percent retracement of the latest upward move. A retracement measures how much of a previous rise a price gives back; the 61.8 and 78.6 percent levels are derived from the Fibonacci sequence and serve many traders as a guide. XRP is now trading below that $1.21, so the support has turned into resistance. The next support on this grid is the 78.6 percent retracement near $1.11. To confirm a bottom, XRP first needs a higher low according to More Crypto Online, followed by a rise above $1.34, the high of November 4.

Drop below $1.149

If XRP falls below Saturday's low of $1.149, the way opens towards $1.11. Below that lie the August lows, $1.0875 in the week from August 20 and $0.985 a week earlier. A weekly close below $1.11 would significantly weaken the picture of whales as buyers.

Sideways between $1.15 and $1.21

The most likely picture for the new week is a narrow band. Without ETF inflows there is no push upwards, while the low balances on Binance dampen selling pressure. This kind of back-and-forth costs leveraged traders above all, because positions are stopped out in both directions.

Reclaiming $1.21

If XRP closes a day above $1.21, Thursday's break of support would be reversed. The next target would be the 200-day average around $1.27, followed by $1.34. One trigger would be a day of measurable ETF inflows, which has not happened since the end of October.

Our view: tight supply is no substitute for demand

In the editorial team's view, the scarcity index shows a genuine shift, but it is overrated as long as demand is missing. The reading itself supports it: 2.1 is the highest level since 2022, after two months in negative territory. So do the 60 million XRP of whale purchases and the record number of large wallets, which suggest that big holders are not selling. Three things argue against it. CryptoQuant itself concedes that part of the outflows may be internal transfers. The ETFs, which still attracted around $121 million in September, have taken in nothing for a good week. And the price fell on exactly the day CryptoQuant reported the record reading.

The conclusion: scarcity works like a coiled spring that only releases when buyers return to the exchange. The signal that matters is therefore not the next index reading but the first ETF day with inflows and a daily close above $1.21. Until then, $1.15 remains the level on which the week turns. No buy or sell decision can be derived from this; cryptocurrencies can lose value up to a total loss.

Crypto holding period and loss offsetting: the sums before year-end

For investors in Germany, the price fall is also a tax question. Under current law, gains from selling XRP are tax-free if more than one year passes between purchase and sale. Within this holding period the sale counts as a private disposal, and gains are taxable as soon as they reach €1,000 in total for the year. The state of the planned reform of the holding period is summarised on our page on the crypto holding period and its reform.

Anyone who bought XRP at a higher price over the past twelve months is often sitting on a paper loss at today's price of around €1.05. A realised loss within the holding period can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year, for example from Bitcoin or Ethereum, or carried forward into later years. Whether that pays off depends on the purchase dates, which are allocated in the order of the purchases. A crypto tax tool handles this allocation automatically across all exchanges and wallets.

Keep in mind that a new purchase after a loss-making sale restarts the holding period. Anyone who wants to hold XRP for the long term should know this effect before realising losses purely for tax reasons.

XRP at $1.16: without ETF inflows, $1.21 remains the hurdle

The week ends with a contradiction that will only resolve over the next few days: XRP is becoming scarce on the largest exchange, but new demand through the funds is not coming. Three steps that make sense today:

1. Set levels as limit orders instead of chasing the price. If you want to buy more, you can place a buy order in the zone around $1.11; if you want to hedge, a sell order below $1.149. MiCA-licensed providers offering limit orders are listed in our crypto exchange comparison.
2. Review your own custody. The Binance outflows show that many holders are taking their XRP off the exchange. If you want to do the same, you need a wallet that supports the XRP Ledger, and you should bear in mind the 1 XRP reserve that the ledger locks per account. Suitable devices are compared in our hardware wallet comparison.
3. Keep your purchase records for the tax office. Before selling at a loss, it is worth checking the holding period of each individual position. Exporting all transactions into a tool from the crypto tax software comparison shows which purchases would still be taxable.

(As of November 8, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)