XRP price prediction: Ripple locks 700 million tokens back up until 2029

Ripple did not leave the billion XRP released on November 1 in circulation. On the evening of the same day, 700 million tokens went back into programmed locks running until June and July 2029. That left 300 million XRP free. The price stood at $1.2522 on Monday morning, close to where it was before the release.

The timing makes the difference. The release shows up in every explorer at 01:00 German time, while the relock followed a good seventeen hours later. Anyone who reads the headline about the billion on the morning of the first and does not check again in the evening knows only half the calculation. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our XRP price prediction.

What happened on the XRP Ledger on November 1

Escrow, briefly explained: a programmed lock on the XRP Ledger that keeps an amount immovable until a fixed date. Before that date nobody can touch it, not even Ripple itself. After the date, a transaction called EscrowFinish releases the lock and the amount sits freely available in the wallet.

At 01:00 German time, two such transactions each released 500 million XRP from two different Ripple wallets. Together that is one billion tokens, around $1.25 billion at the price at the time. This process has repeated on the first of every month since December 2017.

After that, things stayed quiet for seventeen hours. Between 18:31 and 18:35 German time, Ripple distributed the billion in three payments to three wallets: 300 million, 200 million and 500 million XRP. The split alone says little. It becomes telling through what happened in the following seven minutes.

700 million XRP in three EscrowCreate transactions

At 18:38 Ripple placed 100 million XRP in a new lock, at 18:39 another 500 million and at 18:42 a further 100 million. The corresponding transaction is called EscrowCreate and is the counterpart to the release. Together that is 700 million tokens, locked up again.

The new dates are far off: 600 million XRP will be released on June 1, 2029, and 100 million on July 1, 2029. Ripple is therefore appending the relocked amounts to the end of the existing schedule rather than slotting them into the coming months. For supply over the next two and a half years, these 700 million are out of the picture.

cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on November 2, 2026. It is based on account movements and escrow objects of the Ripple wallets concerned on the XRP Ledger; 99 escrow objects across eight wallets were checked. How such a lock works technically is described in the XRP Ledger developer documentation.

300 million XRP sit in a wallet without a lock

That leaves 300 million tokens. This amount went at 18:31 to a wallet that holds not a single escrow object and now contains around 400.7 million XRP. Ripple uses this address for its ongoing business: payments to partners, sales to institutional buyers and liquidity for its own products.

On a net basis, the freely available amount therefore grew by 300 million XRP on November 1. At a price of $1.2522, that is $375.7 million. Whether and when this money reaches the market is not settled by that. All that is established is that it is no longer locked.

October followed the same pattern

On October 1, Ripple also released one billion XRP and, at midday the same day, placed 300 million and 400 million tokens in new locks. Again 700 million went back, again 300 million were freed on a net basis. Only the denominations and the time of day differed.

Two months do not make a series, but they support the ratio analysts have cited as a rule of thumb for years. For a forecast, that means anyone assuming a billion new tokens a month is assuming too much. Anyone assuming zero is assuming too little.

31.1 billion XRP remain in 99 escrow objects

The entire escrow holding is spread across eight Ripple wallets and 99 individual locks. Together that is 31.1 billion XRP, measured on November 2. The dates are evenly spaced: one billion tokens are released on the first of every month, without a gap, until the last date in July 2029 is reached.

The next date is therefore December 1, 2026, again at 01:00 German time, again one billion. The pattern of the last two months suggests that around 300 million of that will again remain free. That is not a commitment, because Ripple has not bound itself to any ratio.

Recalculating the holding yourself is easier than it sounds. Every public XRP Ledger explorer shows the escrow objects for an address, including amount and release date. Anyone who wants to see a month’s net amount should look on the evening of the first for transactions of type EscrowCreate on the recipient wallets.

How much 300 million XRP weigh against daily turnover

A comparison with trading volume puts the size into context. XRP turned over around $1.09 billion in the 24 hours to Monday morning. The $375.7 million from the November release corresponds to a good third of a single trading day, but is spread over an entire month.

Per trading day that is about 10 million XRP, or around $12.5 million, a little over one percent of daily turnover. The escrow holding looks large in the headline and small in day-to-day trading. What pushed the price down 18.5 percent in October was not this supply but a lack of demand: XRP started the month at around $1.49.

ETF inflows of $4.32 million in one week

On the demand side are the US spot ETFs, which complete their first full year in mid-November. In the week to November 2 they took in a net $4.32 million or so, making them the only one of the four big crypto categories in positive territory. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana funds together lost about $701 million, of which Ethereum alone accounted for around $432 million.

As of October 29, the XRP funds managed around $1.47 billion. The direction is right, but the scale remains small: $4.32 million of inflows set against $375.7 million of new free supply in the same month. As long as that ratio does not reverse, the price has to draw its strength from the spot market.

Levels at $1.2400 and $1.2625

Trading over the past 24 hours ranged between a low of $1.2400 and a high of $1.2625, after XRP opened at $1.2491. These two ends are the next well-founded levels because they come from real turnover rather than from a drawn line.

Below that is the round $1.20. This level held several times in October, and according to analysts at 24/7 Wall St., a break below it would require significant ETF outflows. The same firm expects November to trade in a band of $1.20 to $1.32. On the upside, $1.30 remains the target that XRP lost on October 31.

For context on the overall picture: bitcoin stood at $78,172 on Monday morning and barely moved within 24 hours. A quiet overall market deprives XRP of the tailwind the coin would need for a jump above $1.30.

Our assessment of supply pressure

The mechanism is established: 700 million tokens locked until 2029, 300 million free, verifiable on the ledger. Everything that follows from it is assessment. In our reading, the escrow holding carries less weight as a standing argument against XRP than it appears to in discussions, because the monthly net amount is small compared with daily turnover.

The real risk lies elsewhere. Ripple is not obliged to relock 70 percent. A month with a lower ratio would not be a breach of contract but a decision. That is exactly why the EscrowCreate transactions on the evening of the first are worth more attention than any headline in the morning.

Holding period and loss offsetting after a 18.5 percent drop

For investors in Germany, the October loss is relevant for tax. XRP falls under private disposal transactions according to Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act. If you sell within one year of buying, the result is taxable; after a holding period of one year the gain is tax-free. The exemption limit is €1,000 a year for all private disposal transactions combined.

A realised loss from a sale within the one-year period can only be offset against gains from other private disposal transactions, not against interest, dividends or wages. The tax office carries unused losses forward into future years. Which tools document this properly is shown in the comparison of crypto tax tools and portfolio trackers.

Whether the holding period will remain in this form is open. On the planned reform and its status in cabinet, we maintain a separate page on the crypto holding period, which is continuously updated. Until something is decided there, the one-year period applies unchanged.

Base reserve and destination tag in self-custody

Anyone moving XRP from an exchange to their own wallet runs into two peculiarities of the XRP Ledger. The first is the base reserve: every account must permanently hold 1 XRP in order to exist at all. This amount is neither available nor transferable as long as the account exists. A wallet with exactly 1 XRP is therefore empty.

The second is the destination tag, a number that assigns a payment within a pooled address to the right customer. Exchanges use the same XRP address for all customers and distinguish them solely by this identifier. A deposit without a tag lands in the pooled account, and getting it back out means a support case. The reserve rules are set out in the documentation on account reserves.

The transaction fee itself, by contrast, is negligible. On November 2 it stood at 0.00001 XRP per transaction, a fraction of a cent. A withdrawal only becomes expensive through the exchange’s withdrawal fee.

What has changed since November 1

Our analysis of November 1 still treated the release as an open item and worked with exchange balances, from which 133 million tokens had been withdrawn at the time. You can read it in the XRP analysis of November 1. There, the relock ratio was an expectation.

Now it is a fact, and two things have shifted. First, the month’s net amount is settled: 300 million XRP, not one billion. Second, the price came through the release unscathed. On November 1, XRP traded at around $1.25, and on Monday morning at $1.2522. The $1.2400 level held in the meantime, while $1.30 remained out of reach.

Escrow rhythm: the net amount is only fixed on the evening of the first

Three steps follow from the findings:

1. Note December 1. The next release of one billion XRP takes place at 01:00 German time. The net amount is only settled in the evening, when the EscrowCreate transactions become visible. Anyone who wants to buy or sell this week will find the fees in the comparison of the best crypto exchanges.
2. Check the one-year period for each purchase. XRP is 18.5 percent below its level at the start of October. Whether a sale is taxable depends on the date of each individual purchase, not on the total holding. The crypto tax tools take care of the documentation.
3. Clarify reserve and tag before withdrawing. 1 XRP stays bound in the account as a base reserve, and a deposit without a destination tag lands in the exchange’s pooled account. Which devices handle this properly is set out in the hardware wallet comparison.

(As of November 2, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)