Polymarket in January 2026: 90% Chance of a 50 Bps Rate Cut in 2026? What the Fed Did Instead

Update 26 September 2026: The bet did not come in so far. The Federal Reserve did not cut rates in the first eight and a half months of 2026. Under its new chair Kevin Warsh, sworn in on 22 May, it raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on 16 September 2026, according to the FOMC statement. A net easing of 50 basis points in 2026 would now require cuts totalling 75 basis points at the two remaining meetings in October and December. Bitcoin did not get the dovish tailwind either: it fell to its 2026 low of about $58,600 on 1 July and trades at about $84,200 on 26 September (CoinGecko). The January report follows as a dated snapshot.

If you want to buy Bitcoin today, our comparison of Bitcoin providers shows where and at what cost.

What happened to the rate-cut bet?

How the market read Warsh's appointment is covered in Kevin Warsh as Fed chair and Bitcoin, the reaction to the hike in 3 reasons crypto is holding strong after the Fed hike. Current levels are in our Bitcoin price prediction.

The report from 11 January 2026

The prediction market Polymarket is currently flashing a massive signal for macro investors: traders have priced in a 90% probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in 2026. As the Federal Reserve navigates a complex economic landscape of cooling labor data and "sticky" inflation, the crypto world is watching closely.

But why does a central bank decision in Washington D.C. dictate whether $Bitcoin moons or crashes?

The Relationship Between Rate Cuts and Crypto

In the world of finance, interest rates are essentially the "price of money." When the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it becomes cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow. For the crypto news cycle, this usually triggers a "Risk-On" sentiment.

Historically, the correlation works like this:

1. Liquidity Surge: Lower rates increase the global supply of money. This excess liquidity often flows into high-growth assets like Ethereum and Solana.
2. Search for Yield: When government bonds and savings accounts offer lower returns, investors move their capital into "riskier" sectors, like crypto, to find better yields.
3. USD Weakness: Rate cuts often put downward pressure on the US Dollar. Since Bitcoin is often viewed as "digital gold" or a hedge against fiat debasement, a weaker dollar typically pushes BTC prices higher.

Why Traders are Watching 2026

The high probability on Polymarket suggests that the market expects the Fed to pivot aggressively to prevent a recession. For crypto traders, a 50 Bps cut is a "double-edged sword." While it provides the liquidity needed for a bull run, if the cut is a panic response to a failing economy, even crypto might see initial volatility before a recovery.

Is the Bottom In?

While the 2026 outlook looks dovish (favorable for prices), remember that "the market prices in the future." This means the 90% odds on Polymarket might already be influencing current Bitcoin price action.