Ethereum price prediction: BlackRock fund sheds 580,145 ETH, and BitMine absorbs only a fraction

What is established: BlackRock’s Ethereum fund, the iShares Ethereum Trust with the ticker ETHA, has shed 580,145 ETH within a month, about $1.3 billion, according to data from analytics service Lookonchain. On Monday, US spot ether ETFs recorded a further $139.7 million in net outflows, almost entirely from ETHA. Our assessment follows further down: as long as these fund flows do not reverse, the ETH price faces a steady seller that the known buyers are not offsetting.

Ether cost $2,249 on Tuesday morning, 1.4 percent less than 24 hours earlier and 16.6 percent less than 30 days ago. The range over the past 24 hours ran from $2,235 to $2,301. Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our Ethereum price prediction. This piece is about the shorter term, and right now that depends more on the funds in New York than on the blockchain itself.

A spot ETF is an exchange-traded fund that actually holds the underlying asset, in this case real ether at a custodian. When investors buy fund shares, the fund has to acquire ether. When they redeem shares, its holdings shrink.

580,145 ETH out of BlackRock’s ETHA fund in one month

The figure comes from the wallet movements that Lookonchain attributes to the fund and was published on November 2. According to 24/7 Wall St., ETHA’s net assets fell from $9.9 billion to $6.9 billion between October 5 and October 30. The largest daily outflows were $202 million on October 6 and $105 million on October 26, in each case according to SoSoValue data.

How much of it is outflow and how much is price

Three billion dollars less in fund assets sounds like an exodus. Part of it, however, is simply the lower price. We ran a rough calculation for this article: on October 5 ether stood at around $2,727, and on October 30 it closed at $2,243. Dividing the fund’s assets by the respective price, ETHA held about 3.63 million ETH at the start of October and about 3.08 million at the end. That is roughly 0.55 million ETH less, which fits well with Lookonchain’s 580,145 ETH.

This gives a split worth keeping in mind. Roughly $1.3 billion of the decline is genuine redemptions, meaning investors who pulled their money. The remaining $1.7 billion or so is a valuation loss on holdings that stayed in the fund. For the price, the first part is what matters most, because only that means ether leaves the fund and can end up on the sell side of the market.

Six straight days of outflows from US ether ETFs

On Monday, November 2, a combined $139.7 million flowed out of all US spot ether ETFs. That is what Bloomingbit reports, citing Farside Investors. ETHA accounted for $138.3 million of that, and BlackRock’s staking fund with the ticker ETHB for a further $4.6 million. Only Morgan Stanley’s ether ETF booked an inflow, of $3.2 million. All other products saw no movement.

By the count of Farside and SoSoValue, it was the sixth consecutive trading day of net outflows. In the week from October 26 to 30, the ether funds lost $432 million, more than twice as much as the spot ETFs on bitcoin in the same week. It was the fifth week of outflows in a row. For October as a whole, SoSoValue shows net outflows of $1.61 billion.

The scale can be read from two further SoSoValue figures. All US spot ether ETFs together still manage $13.18 billion, equivalent to 4.8 percent of ether’s total market value. Since their launch in summer 2024 they have collected a net $12.15 billion. October therefore gave back a good eighth of what had flowed in over more than two years.

The mechanism behind the outflow: redemptions hit the spot market

An ETF share is not simply passed back and forth between investors like a stock on the secondary market alone. Behind exchange trading stand so-called authorized participants, large trading firms that create or redeem blocks of shares with the fund provider. When there are more sellers than buyers of fund shares, such a firm buys up the shares, hands them in to the fund and receives ether or dollars in return. It usually sells the ether on the spot market to close out its risk.

It is precisely this last step that makes the outflow relevant for the price. Every million dollars that leaves an ether ETF on a net basis turns into ether that has to find a buyer somewhere. On calm days other market participants absorb it. On days when the overall market is nervous anyway, as it has been since the hack at Binance on October 29, the additional supply weighs more noticeably on the price.

BitMine buys around 37,000 ETH a month, ETHA sheds more than fifteen times that

On the buy side, one company stands out at the moment: BitMine, a listed group that holds ether as a reserve. According to 24/7 Wall St., BitMine most recently bought 8,573 ETH for around $19 million and, by its own count, holds 6,060,506 ETH, about 4.9 percent of total supply. Of that, 5,227,037 ETH are locked in staking, meaning they serve as collateral securing the network and earn a reward for doing so.

24/7 Wall St. estimates the buying pace at about 37,000 ETH a month. Set against the 580,145 ETH that ETHA shed over the same period, BitMine mathematically covers only around 6 percent of it. The largest single buyer in the market is therefore nowhere near offsetting the largest single seller. In addition, BitMine’s shares fell 21.5 percent to $20.75 in the same month. That makes it harder for the company to raise fresh money for further purchases by issuing new shares.

Ethereum price since Sunday: the $2,242 level was tested again

In our Sunday analysis of DeFi deposits, ether stood at $2,267 on Sunday afternoon. We had named $2,242 as the lower level, the low of October 31 and the lowest daily close of the preceding 30 days. On the upside, the level was $2,455, the average of the last 30 daily closes.

Two things have changed since then. First, the price has fallen back by just under 0.8 percent to $2,249 and, overnight into Tuesday, briefly dipped below the $2,242 level at $2,235. A daily close below it has not yet happened, so the level is dented but not broken. Second, Monday’s outflow day has revealed a new source of selling pressure that was not yet visible in the DeFi data on Sunday. The $2,455 level on the upside has not come within reach during this time.

Five levels for the ETH price between $2,020 and $2,515

We calculated the moving averages for this article ourselves from CoinMarketCap’s daily closing prices over the past 365 days. The other levels come from the price history.

• $2,515: the simple average of the last 50 daily closes. Ether is 10.6 percent below it. Only above this line would the decline since early October be recovered in technical terms.
• $2,370: the simple 20-day average. It is the first hurdle at which it would become clear whether an end to fund outflows is also showing up in the price.
• $2,170: the low of October 30, which 24/7 Wall St. cites as the current floor.
• $2,158: the simple average of the last 200 daily closes, $2,157.66 by our calculation. The figure matches the value given by 24/7 Wall St. Ether is currently 4.2 percent above it.
• $2,020 to $2,055: a zone where ether turned on a daily-close basis several times in February, March and May.

In the chart above the lines run higher because they are exponentially smoothed and give more weight to recent prices. The exponential 200-day line is at around $2,321. Both readings say the same thing: the price has broken down out of the range of the medium-term averages, and the simple 200-day line at $2,158 is the next level where buyers need to show up. Ether is currently 54.5 percent below its all-time high of $4,946.

US ETFs, German ETNs: access for investors in Germany

Retail investors in Germany generally cannot buy the funds that money is currently flowing out of. US ETFs lack the key information document required by the EU regulation on packaged retail investment products, which is why German custodian banks usually reject the order. The route via a securities account in Germany runs through ETNs, exchange-traded notes listed on German exchanges that in many cases are backed by real ether. Which products exist and how they differ is shown in our overview of crypto ETFs and ETNs in Germany.

The difference is more than a formality. Legally, an ETN is a claim against the issuer, even if ether sits behind it. And the outflows from the US funds affect the ether price that a German ETN also tracks. Anyone invested via a securities account therefore feels the consequences of the New York fund flows just as much as someone holding ether directly on an exchange.

Holding period and tax on directly held ether

Anyone who holds ether directly, for example on an exchange licensed under the European crypto regulation MiCA or in their own wallet, can sell tax-free after a holding period of more than one year. That is set out in Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act. Within that period, gains are taxable as soon as all private disposal gains in a year together reach the exemption limit of €1,000. Whether the one-year period for crypto assets will remain is politically open; our page on the status of the holding period reform summarises where things stand.

In a phase of falling prices especially, it pays to look at your own purchase dates. Anyone who bought ether less than a year ago at higher prices and sells now realises a loss that can be offset against other private disposal gains in the same year. Anyone close to the end of the one-year period, on the other hand, should check whether selling a few weeks later would be more favourable for tax purposes. These rules do not automatically apply to an ETN in a securities account; the custodian bank usually treats it as a security and withholds flat-rate tax.

The editors’ assessment: fund flows outweigh BitMine

Our assessment: for the coming weeks, the direction of US ether ETFs is the single most important factor for the ETH price. In favour of this view is that ETHA shed 580,145 ETH in a month, while the largest identifiable buyer, BitMine, absorbs only about 37,000 ETH a month according to 24/7 Wall St. estimates. Also in favour is that the outflow continued on Monday at $139.7 million, even though the price was already 16.6 percent below its level of 30 days earlier. Anyone selling purely on price grounds might well have stopped by that point.

Against this view is that ETF outflow streaks rarely run forever and a single inflow day can quickly turn sentiment. The simple 200-day line at $2,158 has also held so far. Only a daily close below it would turn the decline into a situation in which the zone around $2,020 to $2,055 becomes the next target. This assessment is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Crypto assets are highly volatile, and a total loss is possible.

ETHA outflows: the 200-day line at $2,158 is the line in the sand

Three steps that follow from the figures in this article:

1. Clarify your own access. If you want to hold ether via a securities account, you will find the products tradable in Germany in the overview of crypto ETFs and ETNs in Germany. Pay attention to collateral, costs and issuer.
2. Choose a regulated exchange for buying directly. Which providers have a MiCA licence and what buying and withdrawing cost is set out in the comparison of crypto exchanges.
3. Watch the $2,158 level. If ether closes below it on a daily basis, the picture described in this article changes. Anyone who then wants to trade short term needs access with clear fees and reliable execution; see the comparison of crypto brokers.

(As of November 3, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy. Crypto investments are high risk, and a total loss is possible.)