ECB rate decision: all dates to 2027 and how Bitcoin reacted

At the ECB rate decision on 29 October 2026, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank left its three key rates unchanged: the deposit facility rate stays at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The next ECB rate decision is due on Thursday, 17 December 2026, at 14:15 CET (13:15 in London), together with new projections. On the same day as the decision, Christine Lagarde announced that she will step down as ECB President on 7 February 2027, almost nine months before her term ends. We have also measured how Bitcoin reacted to the last 15 decisions: the table further down shows the price at the moment of the announcement, 24 hours and seven days later. Our assessment: the direction of the rate move did not predict the direction of the price in this series, and the US Federal Reserve matters more for Bitcoin.

Key points

• Next ECB rate decision: 17 December 2026, 14:15 CET, press conference at 14:45 CET, with new staff projections.
• Decision of 29 October: hold, deposit rate 2.50%. The Council says it does not pre-commit to a particular rate path.
• Current policy rate: deposit rate 2.50% since 16 September 2026, after two hikes in June and September, the first since 2023.
• Inflation: 3.8% in the euro area in September 2026, the highest since September 2023. Energy prices were up 18.9% on the year.
• Lagarde leaves: departure on 7 February 2027, her last meeting is the one on 4 February. EU leaders aim to settle the succession by the summit on 17 and 18 December.
• Bitcoin after 15 decisions: higher six times and lower nine times after 24 hours, and six times higher and eight times lower one week after 14 decisions. The strongest week followed a cut: up 9.4% after 17 April 2025.

For the US side of the picture, see our overview of the Fed rate decision, which tracks every FOMC meeting and Bitcoin's reaction. This page remains the ECB overview: dates, decisions and Bitcoin's response, updated after every meeting.

ECB rate decision on 29 October 2026: hold at 2.50%

On 29 October the Governing Council kept all three key rates at their September level. It explains the pause with risks pointing in both directions: rising energy prices raise the risk to inflation and weigh on growth at the same time. According to the Council, underlying inflation has so far remained broadly stable, and wages are not yet responding noticeably. The ECB publishes the transcript and video on its press conference page. 24 hours after the announcement Bitcoin stood at $77,174, down 3.5% from $80,000 at 14:15 CET, matching 5 February 2026 as the largest 24-hour drop in the series.

More important than the decision is the sentence about what comes next. The Council decides meeting by meeting based on the data and does not commit in advance. Inflation figures for October and November will be published before 17 December, and either could tip the balance. For your portfolio this means: a position that only works under a single rate expectation carries an unnecessary risk.

On the same day Christine Lagarde announced that she will leave office on 7 February 2027. Her eight-year term would have run until the end of October 2027. According to Reuters, she wants to be free to speak on topics beyond monetary policy. The rate decision itself was not affected.

What the ECB rate decision sets

The Governing Council sets three rates. The most important is the deposit facility rate: banks park money overnight at the central bank at this rate, and it anchors overnight deposits, fixed-term deposits and money market funds across the euro area. The main refinancing rate is the price at which banks borrow from the central bank for a week, the marginal lending rate applies to short-term overnight loans. Since September 2024 the gap between the deposit rate and the main refinancing rate has been only 0.15 percentage points.

The ECB's goal is price stability, defined as 2% inflation over the medium term. The target is symmetric: undershooting is considered as undesirable as overshooting. Unlike the US Federal Reserve, the ECB has no equal-ranking employment goal. The Council consists of the six members of the Executive Board and the governors of the euro area's national central banks, whose voting rights rotate.

For investors, the deposit rate is what counts. It roughly determines what you earn on safe euro balances and is therefore the benchmark for any return in crypto, whether from staking, lending or price gains.

ECB rate decision dates 2026 and 2027 with times

The Governing Council holds eight monetary policy meetings a year, each over two days. The decision is published on the second day at 14:15 CET, the press conference starts at 14:45 CET. In London that is 13:15 and 13:45 all year round, because the UK and the euro area change their clocks on the same days.

The dates come from the Governing Council meeting calendar. The meeting on 4 February 2027 is the last one chaired by Lagarde. The ECB publishes an account of each meeting about four weeks later.

ECB policy rate today: deposit rate at 2.50% since 16 September

Since 16 September 2026 the deposit rate has stood at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The ECB got there in two steps of 0.25 percentage points each, decided on 11 June and 10 September 2026. Before that it had held the deposit rate at 2.00% for a year, after eight cuts between June 2024 and June 2025. The ECB lists every level in its table of key interest rates.

Energy tipped the balance towards the hikes. The war in the Middle East and disrupted passage through the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil prices, and the euro area imports most of its energy. According to Eurostat, euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September 2026, from 3.2% in August. Energy cost 18.9% more than a year earlier. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, was 2.5%. Among the largest economies, the rate was 3.3% in Germany, 3.4% in France, 4.2% in Italy and 5.0% in Spain.

This split explains the October pause. As long as inflation comes mainly from energy and wages and services do not follow, the Council treats it as a supply shock. A rate hike does not make oil cheaper, but it dampens demand and therefore growth. That trade-off is what December will decide.

Every ECB rate decision since 2025 and how Bitcoin reacted

The table shows every monetary policy decision since January 2025 and the Bitcoin price at the minute of the 14:15 CET announcement, 24 hours and seven days later, based on Coinbase 15-minute prices in US dollars. The 24-hour value for 29 October is in, only the one-week value follows on 5 November.

Three patterns stand out. First: the four cuts in 2025 were followed by two losing weeks, down 6.4% and 8.6%, and two winning weeks, including the strongest week in the series, up 9.4% after 17 April 2025. Second: the two hikes in 2026 barely moved Bitcoin, up 1.4% in the week after the June decision and down 1.4% after the September decision. Third: in the three hours after the announcement, the range between high and low was between 0.8% and 2.7% in 14 of 15 cases. The outlier was 5 February 2026 with 6.4%, on a day when the ECB changed nothing.

How the ECB rate decision affects the Bitcoin price

The short answer: indirectly, and less than the US Federal Reserve. Bitcoin trades mainly against the US dollar, and crypto market liquidity depends on monetary policy in Washington. The ECB works through three channels that partly offset each other.

The euro exchange rate. For investors in the euro area, Bitcoin in euros equals Bitcoin in dollars divided by EUR/USD. If the euro gains 5%, the euro price of Bitcoin falls by about 4.8% with an unchanged dollar price. A tighter ECB tends to support the euro and thus lowers the euro price of Bitcoin even when the dollar price does not move.

The safe rate. With 2.50% on overnight deposits, the bar rises for any asset without a running yield. Bitcoin pays no interest. Staking on proof-of-stake networks earns a few percent a year depending on the network, but with the price risk of the coin. The higher the deposit rate, the less that risk pays off for cautious investors.

Liquidity. Low rates and ample money encourage risk-taking across markets. For Bitcoin, however, this channel runs mainly through the dollar and therefore through the Fed.

Our assessment from the series above: anyone betting on the outcome of an ECB meeting is relying on a weak signal for Bitcoin. The direction of the rate move did not predict the direction of the price in any recognisable pattern. If you think in euros, the exchange rate matters more than the meeting day, and for regular purchases a Bitcoin savings plan is more robust than buying around the meeting.

Lagarde's successor: who could lead the ECB from February 2027

The new President is appointed by the European Council by qualified majority, on a recommendation from the finance ministers and after consulting the European Parliament and the ECB Governing Council, as set out in Article 283 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU. The term is eight years and cannot be renewed. European Council President António Costa opened the process on 29 October. Observers such as Berenberg's chief economist expect a decision by the EU summit on 17 and 18 December 2026 at the latest.

The timing has a political core. France elects a new president in April 2027. The early departure allows Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz to settle the appointment before that election.

Hawks are central bankers who fight inflation early with higher rates, doves give more weight to growth. Hernández de Cos and Knot are seen as the frontrunners. On the prediction market Kalshi, Hernández de Cos led with 42% on 29 October, ahead of Knot with 34%, as Seeking Alpha reports. Spain backs Hernández de Cos, the Netherlands back Knot. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel moves to the International Monetary Fund in January 2027.

The real turning point is bigger than a single post. Schnabel leaves in January, Lagarde in February, and chief economist Philip Lane's term ends in May 2027. Half of the six-member Executive Board will change within five months. A hawkish President such as Knot would likely keep rates higher for longer and support the euro, a centrist such as Hernández de Cos would give more weight to growth and to the bond spreads of southern member states. For Bitcoin priced in euros, a stronger euro would be a headwind.

The Lagarde era in review: from minus 0.50% to 4.00% and back

Christine Lagarde took over the ECB from Mario Draghi on 1 November 2019, with the deposit rate at minus 0.50%. A lawyer by training, she had previously been Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and French finance minister. Her term falls into four phases.

• Pandemic 2020: after a bumpy start in March 2020, when a remark about bond spreads put Italian government bonds under pressure, the ECB launched its pandemic emergency purchase programme PEPP, eventually worth €1,850 billion. It prevented a new debt crisis in the euro area.
• Inflation 2021 and 2022: the ECB long considered rising prices transitory and only hiked in July 2022, four months after the Fed. Inflation reached 10.6% in October 2022. That was the biggest mistake of her term.
• Tightening 2022 and 2023: what followed was the fastest rate increase in the history of the euro, ten hikes from minus 0.50% to 4.00% in 14 months, backed by a new tool against diverging government bond yields. By 2025 inflation had fallen back to about 2% without a deep recession.
• Easing and energy shock 2024 to 2026: eight cuts until June 2025, starting three months before the Fed, then two hikes in 2026 because of energy prices.

For savers, eight years of negative rates ended under Lagarde. She was sceptical of crypto: she called Bitcoin highly speculative, warned of money laundering risks and pushed for strict stablecoin rules. How tense the relationship with the industry was is shown in our report on whether Lagarde blocked Binance's MiCA licence. Her most important unfinished project is the digital euro. The European Parliament adopted its negotiating position in July 2026, and the ECB plans a twelve-month pilot from the second half of 2027. Her successor will therefore decide on the pilot and the launch.

ECB and Fed: why the US meeting moves Bitcoin more

The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States and sets the rate of the world's reserve currency. It has a dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Since 16 September 2026 its target range has been 3.75% to 4.00%, confirmed on 28 October. The gap to the ECB deposit rate is therefore 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points, which tends to support the dollar.

In December both central banks decide in quick succession: the Fed on 9 December at 2:00 p.m. ET, the ECB eight days later. On the prediction market Polymarket, 76.5% was priced on a Fed hike in December as of 29 October. Across the two series, Bitcoin's change one week after the decision ranged from minus 18.1% to plus 11.4% for the Fed and from minus 8.6% to plus 9.4% for the ECB. All Fed dates and Bitcoin's reaction are in our overview of the Fed rate decision.

ECB meetings and your crypto portfolio: euro balances, staking and stablecoins

A deposit rate of 2.50% sets the benchmark for safe money. Euros held on a crypto exchange usually earn no interest there. Euro stablecoins issued under the EU's MiCA regulation may not pay interest to their holders. Staking offers come in above or below the deposit rate depending on the network, but carry the price risk of the coin.

For EU readers, the regulatory side matters as much as the rate. MiCA-licensed platforms can serve customers across the euro area, and the digital euro, once issued, will compete with private euro stablecoins for everyday payments. Who leads the ECB from February will shape how open that competition is.

ECB in December: new projections and an open direction

On 17 December the ECB will publish new projections for inflation and growth. They will show whether the central bank sees the energy shock as temporary or expects knock-on effects in wages and services. If core inflation keeps rising, a third hike becomes more likely. If oil prices fall, the case for a longer pause grows. The Council has explicitly not committed to either direction.

The EU summit starts on the same day, and observers expect Lagarde's successor to be decided there. We update this page after every meeting: with the decision and the Bitcoin price after 24 hours and after seven days.